Making its long-awaited return from the 2020-21 NBA season, the “5 Stats to Know” article will be returning for the post-All-Star Break NBA season. The articles will come every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the DFS field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Thaddeus Young, PF/C, Toronto Raptors (@ CHA)
Since his debut with the Raptors, Thaddeus Young has posted a 24.4% usage rate and 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with OG Anunoby off of the floor
The sample size is incredibly small (23.8 minutes), so this should be taken with a grain of salt. What’s important, however, is Nick Nurse’s tendency to run a very tight rotation. Anunoby has been ruled out for Friday’s contest and after Young saw 20 minutes in a competitive game in only his second game with the Raptors, it sounds reasonable to assume he’ll be a key rotational piece against the Hornets. If there has ever been a perfect matchup for Young, Charlotte is the one. They rank in the bottom third of the league against all four of his archetypes — primary ball-handler (21st), bench (24th), rebounder (29th) and skilled center (29th). For only $3,600, Young is an elite value option given his per-minute upside on Friday’s slate.
Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG, Indiana Pacers (vs. OKC)
Tyrese Haliburton has averaged 103.0 touches per game since being traded to the Pacers, leading the entire NBA
Haliburton has shown exactly why Indiana was so interested in trading for him, as he’s averaged 20.8 points in 38.9 minutes per game in his four games with his new team. While the likely return of Malcolm Brogdon will surely put a damper on his touches, the fact that Brogdon has missed all but three games since mid-December, he’ll almost surely be on a minutes limit. In a favorable matchup against the tanking Thunder, Haliburton is a great GPP option on a slate where the masses are likely to jump ship.
LeBron James, SF, Los Angeles Lakers (vs. LAC)
LeBron James has averaged nearly 10% more DraftKings points per game in games without Anthony Davis than he has in games with Davis active
It goes without saying that the void of Davis is going to be taken advantage of by a fellow superstar, but seeing nearly a 10% jump (5.11 DK points) in production for a player that is already averaging north of 50 DK points per game this year is quite sizeable. James went through shootaround and is expected to suit up against the crosstown rival Clippers and comes in as the fifth most expensive player on the slate. Despite the price, he has the upside to finish as the number one scorer on the slate, making him an appealing spend-up in such a favorable matchup.
Wendell Carter, PF/C, Orlando Magic (vs. HOU)
The Houston Rockets are allowing the second-most points in the paint (51.8) per game this season in the NBA
Wendell Carter has been a difficult player to roster this season, as his performances have paralleled whether or not Orlando has been able to hang around in games. He’s seen at least 30 minutes in six of his last 10 games. In all six of those games, the Magic either won or lost by no more than 15 points. In the four games that he fell short of 30 minutes, the Magic lost by at least 20 points in every game. Tonight’s game against the Rockets comes with a 3.5-point spread and Houston happens to be one of the worst interior defenses in the NBA. Carter took advantage in their last matchup in December, logging a 10-point, 16-rebound double-double with a pair of blocks across 33 minutes. For what should be minuscule ownership, Carter is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board.
Jakob Poeltl, C, San Antonio Spurs (@ WAS)
Jakob Poeltl is averaging the 12th-most rebounding chances per game in the NBA (17.2)
The names ahead of Poeltl put him among elite company, as the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Rudy Gobert and Jarrett Allen among others litter the top-11. The noteworthy bit here is that only two players ahead of Poeltl (Jusuf Nurkic and Clint Capela) average fewer minutes per game than he does (28.9). Against a Washington defense that struggles to defend anything offensively in the paint and also struggle on the glass, Poeltl could be primed for a monstrous showing.
