Welcome back to Ahead of the Count. This article is going to cover my thoughts on the slate, top to bottom. My goal is going to provide you with as much analysis, strategy and advice as possible on a daily basis to help you guys not only make winning lineups, but learn, develop and dial in on a process of your own.

I will have my main slate preview article Monday-Friday, as well as my projections. My projections are currently loaded into our brand new FTN MLB DFS optimizer on the site, but make sure you’re checking back and not setting lineups too early as my projections will often change once starting lineups are confirmed. My player-rater system and ownership projections will also be integrated into the optimizer as well as available on the FTN MLB Ownership and Projections page. 

Be sure to check out the rest of our FTN MLB DFS content as we have you covered with anything you could look for. Also, please be sure to check for spotty weather and to confirm the starting lineups for each person I write up to ensure they made the starting lineup that day.

Pitchers

Expensive tier

  1. Julio Urías, Los Angeles Dodgers — Urías shut down this Rockies lineup in his first start of the season, striking out six and allowing just three hits in 7 innings. In 2019-2020, Urías had a 24% K%, and this Rockies lineup features five hitters (not including the pitcher) who have a 22% K% over that time frame. Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and C.J. Cron could give Urias trouble, but if he is able to get past them, he should see little resistance. I don’t love his price though; I think he is overpriced yet still receiving the lion share of the ownership among pitchers on this slate.
  2. Rich Hill, Tampa Bay Rays — Hill looked solid last time out against the Yankees, and this matchup against Texas is much easier and filled with more strikeout upside than the Yankees. I’m also not in love with the DK price here, but he is under $8k on FD which is very appealing. Hill has been dominant against LHHs since 2019, allowing an ISO of just .051 and a wOBA of under .260 to both sides of the plate. This Texas lineup has five hitters who strike out 30% of the time or more against LHPs.

Mid-tier

  1. Patrick Corbin, Washington Natinaals — Corbin really struggled last time out, but that was against the Dodgers, which is excusable. This matchup here is much easier, as the Diamondbacks are without two of their best hitters against LHPs in Ketel Marte and Christian Walker. Corbin is cheap on DK, which will make him the de facto SP2 option, but on a small slate, I am OK with his ownership here as there aren’t a ton of options as underpriced as him.
  2. Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics — The Tigers are off to a hot start, but they are likely going to come down to earth here shortly and on a short slate with not a ton of great pitching options Manaea can serve as a contrarian option. He doesn’t bring a ton of strikeout ability here as he is around a 20% K% since 2019, but being a home favorite in an extremely pitcher-friendly park can go a long way when you are cheap.

Value tier

  1. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers — A lot of the same things said about Manaea apply to Skubal. He is a more volatile pitcher but also brings more strikeout upside to the table as he has had a 25% K% since making his debut in 2020. There are a few bats in this lineup that are very scary if you are Skubal, mainly Matt Chapman, but Skubal is the cheapest option I am willing to consider on this slate.

My pitcher rankings

  1. Patrick Corbin
  2. Rich Hill (better on FD)
  3. Julio Urías
  4. Sean Manaea
  5. Tarik Skubal

Stacks

  1. Tampa Bay Rays
  2. Toronto Blue Jays
  3. Washington Nationals
  4. Kansas City Royals
  5. Oakland A’s

Quick hits

Favorite value hitter — Rowdy Tellez 
Favorite value pitcher — Patrick Corbin (DK), Rich Hill (FD)
Favorite one-off hitter — Matt Chapman
Favorite contrarian pitcher — Rich Hill (Won’t be very contrarian though)
Favorite contrarian stack — Washington Nationals
The bleacher report (HR calls) — Juan Soto, Jorge Soler, Yandy Díaz