GPPs are a game of probability. We can think of the chance of our lineup “hitting” as the chance of all of our individual plays hitting. This is why we stack - by adding correlation, we increase the probability of a group of players hitting at the same time.

A great analogy is to think of our lineups as parlays, where adding correlation can decrease the “legs” of a parlay. In other words, we stack to decrease the number of things we need to be right about in order for the lineup to hit. However, I believe it’s a mistake to think of the parlay as confined to our own lineup - we also need to be right about the chalk that we fade. This is where correlated leverage comes into play.

Correlated leverage exists when we pivot away from...

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