Predicting NFL DFS Performance with Price and Roster Percentage
FTN Daily NFL Tools
For as long as I can remember, the following has been accepted as truth in NFL DFS:
- RBs are the most predictable because of their volume
- Pay up for stud RBs because their ceilings are incomparable
- Since WRs are more volatile, get contrarian there
- TEs are the most volatile and therefore the hardest to predict
There was certainly a time when all of this was true, and proven true with data. But is it still true? I’ve tracked pricing and results since Week 7 to find out. The sample includes all players 1% rostered or higher in a given week.
Positional Analysis
The first thing we want to do is model fantasy production on price and ownership for each position. Of particular interest to us is RB vs. WR, so I’ll begin with the R output for each,...
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