It’s never fun to be without a CF Model, but no one in the industry knows what to expect at this new course for this week’s CJ Cup. Consequently, there are sure to be ownership inefficiencies we can take advantage of. Regardless of the event, PGA DFS is all about weighing the risk and reward of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you're on an island when it comes to your viewpoint of a play in order to be in the highest EV position. Enter: hot takes. 

Not all hot takes are meant to be overly spicy (though some will be). Instead, what we’re looking to do here is point out the largest ownership inefficiencies possible. 

1. Dustin Johnson builds off his dominant Ryder Cup performance

Heading into the Ryder Cup, Johnson was scorching hot with the putter and just needed to get his ball striking back on track. Well, going 5-0 against some of Europe’s finest suggests he did just that. 

Pricing this week is soft, and I have two ways I like to attack soft pricing:

  • Balanced lineup full of cheaper-than-usual players
  • Low-owned studs whose price is less prohibitive than usual due to the softer pricing below

It won’t be surprising if DJ dips into single-digit ownership in single entries.

2. Sungjae season!

No one in the field has gained more strokes over their last 20 rounds than Sungjae Im, at 2.3. He’s outperforming all of his baseline stats while being particularly dialed in with his ball striking:

I was sure he’d be chalk, but he’s projected around 10%. Yes, please.

3. Xander Schauffele will be over-owned

Schauffele has not been himself off the tee recently, resulting in a half stroke worse performance over his last 20 rounds than his baseline. His ownership is entirely narrative driven, with the narrative being his strong historical performance in small field/no cut events. When ownership is fueled by a narrative, we steer away — every single time.

4. Correlate!

For anyone MME-ing, I strongly suggest building lineups for various potential course characteristics. Will the course reward distance more than most? Will it emphasize iron play? Short game? The truth is we don’t know, but stacking golfers who succeed in similar ways is a great way to add correlation in a sport oft-starved for it.