I’m going to be writing up my thoughts on Single Entry GPP strategy for these big slates. I’m going to work in conjunction with the ownership projections and point projections right here on our site. I am pretty much strictly playing on Draft Kings these days, so keep that in mind. If there is a large price discrepancy, that may change my read if I were to be playing Fan Duel. Also, there may be circumstances where a chalky pitcher is just that much chalkier due to FD only using one pitcher, so keep that in mind as well.
“Comedy is surprises, so if you're intending to make somebody laugh and they don't laugh, that's funny.”
-Norm Macdonald
Pitching
I am going to try and word this write-up to follow along with my analysis. This is a GPP strategy article and not an advanced analytics analysis. For projections, I’ll reference our optimizer, rostership projections, the stacking tool, and the strikeout model pages.
We can see that Gerrit Cole is projected as the most popular pitcher on the slate as he takes on the Orioles. Setting aside the fact that the Orioles have been an above-average offense for half a season and have been busting chalk left and right the last week, we see Cole’s range of outcomes show a ~25% chance at going 2.7X his price on DK (30+ points for $10.7K). We also see that Lucas Giolito projects to be on half the lineups that Cole does, yet what is the difference in projections? An 18% chance at 2.8X? Certainly, those numbers are not the same, but should Cole be twice as popular as Giolito? I don’t think so. Now when we back it up with some analysis, we recall the Orioles have been solid for a couple of months while the Angels offense has morphed from a formidable matchup with a low strikeout rate into a terrible bunch of hitters with a 25% strikeout rate… add to it that Game Log Watchers will be willing to put all their marbles into the basket representing “Giolito was bad last outing against the Pirates..” and I can actually see him under 20% in Single Entry GPP. I don’t hate the Cole chalk to the point where I’ll leverage against him with a bat, but all things considered, just give me Giolito.
I think Nathan Eovaldi is a decent option and Frankie Montas has really been great in the second half, I just can’t put either ahead of Giolito. The budget savings isn’t big enough.
For a lower-tier SP2 I think the strategy is about the same as SP1. There are no secret analytics to tell you to play Jesús Luzardo over Erick Fedde. One guy has a slightly better matchup, and the other guy is a little better at missing bats. It doesn’t quite even them out, as we see on the range of outcomes on the Pitching Model page Fedde has a 1 in 3 shot at 20 points (approximately 3X his price) while Luzardo is in the 1 in 5 range. But it is close enough that if I thought these guys would both come in at 25%, I’d go Fedde. Our rostership projections show Fedde at 28% with Luzardo at 20%. Given the difference in odds of 3X (1:3 for Fedde vs 1:5 for Luzardo) I feel like that difference in rostership is warranted. If I’m going here, I am going Fedde. In fact, given Luzardo’s Achilles Heels is the home run ball, I am leveraging a bat against him if I do roster Fedde.
Kyle Gibson is projected to be up there with those guys, and I think the projections are probably missing on his 6% SwStr% over the last 30 days. Between that and the Cubs scoring runs just as well as they did before they traded away 3 All Star players, I think I’ll let everyone else pray for perfect run prevention to accompany his 4 strikeouts.
Now, in super deep GPPs I think there is a case to be made for getting a little more weird than that. You’re probably looking at a combined 50% rostership on those two pitchers recommended above. If I really wanted to take a shot downfield, Jackson Kowar has the stuff to pay off the $5K price tag. The Oakland matchup scares me because they’re a patient offense, and Kowar nibbling is what gets him behind in the count, but at that price, all you need is like 4 innings, with 5 strikeouts and 1 run allowed. It’s worth the 5% rostership opportunity cost.
Hitting
Initially, I had assumed this would be another slate where I write up the Yankees and they let me down, but our rostership projections are telling me otherwise. 25-30% on those bats is a tough price to pay on a big slate.
I see the Phillies are ranked second in the Stacking Tool, yet project at just 7-10% rostership. Adrian Sampson is probably best attacked with right-handed hitters, but even without JT Realmuto, the second-highest implied run total on the slate looks to be vastly under-represented in tournaments. I think the Astros, too, come in a little under-rostered and I’ll be fitting in a couple of their bats.
I mentioned Jackson Kowar’s struggles earlier and the more I have looked over things, the more I like Matt Olson. He legit should be $6K on DK today and is $5.1K. I am getting to a bit of an Astros stack where I use a wrap-around with the cheaper guys and seeing how I can piece that together with Philly.
