We had a solid night of college basketball DFS Wednesday despite a few value busts from the Gamecocks of South Carolina. At this point, I think we can safely write them off and move them to the “GPP only” category. On tap for Thursday is a six-game slate with some fantastic pay-up options but a lack of appealing value. This should make for an interesting slate in which ownership is more spread out than usual.

In this breakdown, I will list the Vegas odds, KenPom score and team tempo rankings for all six games. In addition to this, I will highlight my top plays at each price level which includes pay ups, mid-range and value options.

 

Ohio State vs. Minnesota

Odds: Ohio State -6.5, O/U 134
KenPom Score: 71-68 Minnesota
Tempo Rankings: Ohio State 217, Minnesota 305

Purdue vs. Iowa

Odds: Purdue -2, O/U 153
KenPom Score: 82-80 Purdue
Tempo Rankings: Purdue 220, Iowa 55

California vs. UCLA

Odds: UCLA -16, O/U 129
KenPom Score: 72-57 UCLA
Tempo Rankings: Cal 335, UCLA 203

Loyola Marymount vs. Gonzaga

Odds: Gonzaga -28.5, O/U 156.5
KenPom Score: 91-65 Gonzaga
Tempo Rankings: LMU 198, Gonzaga 3

Stanford vs. USC

Odds: USC -11, O/U 141
KenPom Score: 74-64 USC
Tempo Rankings: Stanford 145, USC 188

Colorado vs. Washington

Odds: Colorado -2.5, O/U 135
KenPom Score: 70-67 Colorado
Tempo Rankings: Colorado 186, Washington 59

Core Plays

Pay-Ups

EJ Liddell, Ohio State ($9k)

There isn’t a ton of exciting value for this slate, which will make stacking studs more difficult than usual. We will have to do our best because there are lots of fantastic matchups for the spend-up options. Liddell will be facing a banged-up Minnesota team that we know is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country. He has solid rebounding rates at a combined 29% and should have no problem scoring from all three levels against the Gophers.

Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga ($9.1k)

Holmgren will be low-rostered but has a chance to replicate what he did against the San Fran Dons. In that game he posted a 22-9-2 stat line with 4 blocks. We projected that they simply didn’t have the personnel to hold him in check and I think that will end up being the case against LMU. They’re going to have to throw their most physical defender onto Drew Timme which leaves Holmgren free to roam around the floor unchecked. Chet has one of the best offensive ratings in the country, is a sneakily strong rebounder and a vicious shot blocker. To further his “unicorn status,” the seven-footer is knocking down 40% of his triples. Keegan Murray and Terrell Brown are also strong options up top so we will have to make some tough decisions when it comes to our main lineup.

Also Consider

Jabari Walker, Colorado (a top play if you don’t want to pay all the way up)
Keegan Murray, Iowa
Terrell Brown, Washington
Isaiah Mobley, USC
Eli Scott, LMU

Mid-Range

Payton Willis, Minnesota ($7.8k)

A lot of the decisions for this slate will depend on player news for Minnesota. They were without a big portion of their team last week, but luckily they’re the first game on the slate, which means we will have that information at our disposal before lock. Willis went ballistic in a surprising win over Rutgers in which he played 40 minutes and dropped over 50 fantasy points. Ohio State’s defense has been inconsistent this season but when they’re on, they have been a lock down unit. I would be willing to take that risk though if Minnesota is once again without Jamison Battle, Eric Curry and Eylijah Stephens. His usage rate during that Rutgers game was well over 30% and he would perform like a player that should be priced at $9k without his usual counterparts.

Joe Quintana, LMU ($5.8k)

While it’s true this slate has a significantly weaker mid-range than Wednesday’s, there are still a few viable options in the $5k-$7k range and Quintana is worth a long look. Dameane Douglas finally had to shut it down after suffering through various injuries this year and that opens up plenty of usage for the remaining players on LMU. Last time the Zags were on the slate, we went into detail about how they give up a high number of real points/fantasy points even in blowouts. When you’re giving up 75+ points to your opponents in blowout wins, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for those guys to put up numbers. Quintana was shut down last time out against St. Mary’s, which will keep his ownership below 10% but I suspect we see a big bounce back from him and we could see him play 35-plus minutes. Quintana is going to be asked to shoulder a lot of the scoring load with defensive attention on Eli Scott and Cam Shelton. He has the top offensive rating on the team and is knocking down 41% of his 111 three-point attempts.

Also Consider

Tyger Campbell, UCLA
Jaime Jaquez, UCLA
Jules Bernard, UCLA
Chevez Goodwin, USC
Drew Peterson, USC
Brandon Angel, Stanford
Evan Battey, Colorado
Malaki Branham, OSU
Sasha Stefanovic, Purdue
Julian Strawther, Gonzaga
Anton Watson, Gonzaga

Values

Colorado Players

Another Buffaloes slate means we have some intriguing value options at our disposal. As an added bonus, they get to face my fast-paced Washington Huskies squad. Eli Parquet has returned after a leg injury, but KJ Simpson still played around 20 minutes and put up a solid 21 fantasy points. In fact, Simpson has scored 20-plus fantasy points in three of his last five games and just oozes star potential. Nique Clifford put up almost 30 fantasy points against the Huskies last time they played and should be considered as long as he maintains his starting spot. Tristan Da Silva and Keeshawn Barthelemy are both sub-$5k as well with both having solid rates in most categories.I would rank them Tristan Da Silva (bigs have shredded the Huskies), Nique Clifford, Keeshawn Barthelemy and then KJ Simpson. That’s mostly because of expected minutes because if Simpson were to get 25-plus minutes he would be the top play on the team. Jabari Walker and Evan Battey are the top plays for Colorado, but my rankings are just for the value options.

Luke Loewe, Minnesota ($3.6k)

Loewe’s viability will be dependent on the Minnesota injury news but the Gophers are down to 6-7 players again, he becomes a top value on the slate. He had his best game in a Minnesota uniform last time out scoring 19 points on his way to a 27-fantasy-point game. Even with guys like Battle playing, Loewe has been playing over 30 minutes so he can be considered regardless of how that news shakes out.

Also Consider

Treyton Thompson, Minnesota (high upside at min price if starting again)
Charlie Daniels, Minnesota
Mason Gillis, Purdue
Kyle Young, Ohio State
Zed Key, Ohio State
Keli Leaupepe, LMU
Rasir Bolton, Gonzaga
Jaiden Delaire, Stanford
Peyton Watson, UCLA
Cody Riley, UCLA
Eric Hunter, Purdue

DraftKings Core

  • Payton Willis
  • Tristan Da Silva (or one of the other Colorado values you’re comfortable with)
  • EJ Liddell (check Discord as my core could evolve prior to lock)

FanDuel Core

  • Keegan Murray
  • Jabari Walker
  • Kyle Young

PrizePicks Plays

  • Kevin Samuel OVER 20.5 Combo Points (Pts/Rebs/Asts)
  • Jabari Walker OVER 22.5 Combo Points (Pts/Rebs/Asts)
  • Chet Holmgren OVER 23.5 Combo Points (Pts/Rebs/Asts)
  • Jordan Walker OVER 24.5 Combo Points (Pts/Rebs/Asts)