Thursday Night Football: DFS Showdown Strategy, Week 3

This article is going to cover my Showdown rules and rankings for DraftKings and FanDuel. This is a DFS spin on the TNF DFS game breakdown by Adam Strangis .

I am giving my quick thoughts plus strategy to building. The most important things I look for are matchups, opportunity and salary.

I tend to go with a correlated build that tells a story. I find that wins more than it loses. The “ General Rules ” article will remain accurate for most games, but depending on player salary and team scheme, they can change. Check that link for my general rules; it’s a must read if you are building MME lineups.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Steelers Running Back There are 20-30 MPH winds in a game featuring two quarterbacks not known for throwing it deep to begin with. This should be a good old-fashioned ground-and-pound gamescript for both teams.

Najee Harris is the clear top dog usage monster on the Steelers. Jaylen Warren slid in for 29% of the snaps last week, which usually wouldn’t be enough to get it done if Harris stays on the field. However, with a predicted run-heavy script, he could get some more work as a change-of-pace back or when Harris needs a rest. If something were to happen to him Warren would enter optimal territory. He is still pretty good value play regardless.

Benny Snell hasn’t played a snap this season and I will fade him and pray that trend continues.

Wide Receiver The Browns let eight Jets catch a pass on them for 324 yards and 4 touchdowns last week with Joe Flacco under center, but it will be much more difficult to throw this week.

On paper, the Browns corners have all been about equal as far as catch percentage allowed goes, ranging from 62% to 64%. Rookie Marten Emerson is likely the best place to target. He is going to play on the outside and see more Diontae Johnson and George Pickens . Surely the Browns will attempt to keep Denzel Ward on Johnson more, but on the other hand Johnson is going to see significantly more snaps than Pickens.

Johnson is clearly the top guy, having seen double-digit targets in each of the first two games. Chase Claypool is next, playing primarily out of the slot. Pickens is the No. 3 option but has some upside based on matchup.

Gunner Olszewski might get left out of my player pool. He has one TD in four seasons hitting a ceiling of 38 yards. Miles Boykin probably be active. but he offers low upside.

Tight End Pat Freiermuth is one of my favorite guys to target. Mitch Trubisky has always been dependent on his tight ends, no matter the team, and it hasn’t been any different the first two weeks with the Steelers. He has been the third-highest targeted TE in the league behind Tyler Higbee and Mark Andrews .

Zach Gentry is the backup, and you are only playing him if you have a lot of lineups. Last week he saw 34% of the snaps, yet no targets. In Week 1 he caught both targets for 40 yards.

Browns Running Backs I want Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt in every lineup. Again, strong winds and running gamescripts with perhaps the most lethal running duo in the league. No, the matchups isn’t great, but the opportunity will be there.

Wide Receivers Like most spots in this game, there isn’t much to get excited about. There really isn’t a “must attack” corner. Technically you want to throw at the slot, where David Bell is 75% of his routes, but he only got 30% of the snaps last week. Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones will be on the field most of the time bouncing around. The Steelers likely have a heavier focus on Cooper, yet Peoples-Jones’ salary is a bit high. Really neither is priority, but if choosing one it would be Cooper.

You could consider Anthony Schwartz in MME as the WR4, but I think I might cut him from the pool in what should be a low-scoring game.

Tight End The Steelers have limited opposing tight ends to just 6 receptions for 64 yards. Jacoby Brissett targeted a TE nine times last game against the Jets, one of the worst teams against the positions. With the wind Thursday, expect them to be just as involved on short dumpoffs.

You are not looking for much production from either David Njoku or Harrison Bryant . Even a red zone TD would be unlikely. I don’t mind throwing one in, but neither is priority, while both viable in MME (but not together).

The Plays: FanDuel FanDuel MVP I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

MVP Tier 1: Nick Chubb , Najee Harris , Kareem Hunt MVP Tier 2: Mitch Trubisky , Jacoby Brissett

Flex Rankings Tier 1

Nick Chubb Najee Harris Kareem Hunt Deontae Johnson Mitch Trubisky Jacoby Brissett Pat Freiermuth Amari Cooper Steelers defense Chase Claypool Browns defense David Njoku Donovan Peoples-Jones Jaylen Warren George Pickens Chris Boswell Cade York Harrison Bryant David Bell Anthony Schwartz Gunner Olszewski Zach Gentry Tier 2

Fadeable tier: Don’t play more than one, if any.

Demetric Felton Miles Boykin DraftKings CPT You want the highest-scoring player or the best value at CPT on DraftKings. The salaries adjust on DK from flex to CPT. I tend to lean to pass catchers here, because of the 1-point PPR structure.

CPT Tier 1: Kareem Hunt , Najee Harris , Nick Chubb CPT Tier 2: Mitch Trubisky , Jacoby Brissett CPT Tier 3: Pat Freiermuth , Diontae Johnson , Chase Claypool Punt: Donovan Peoples-Jones

The quarterbacks are too cheap, even though they have a tough weather game and matchup ahead. If you want to play a defense at CPT because of the projected low total go for it, but don’t think it is sneaky. This might be the highest CPT D slate of the year.

Flex Rankings Tier 1

Nick Chubb Najee Harris Kareem Hunt Diontae Johnson Mitch Trubisky Jacoby Brissett Pat Freiermuth Amari Cooper Steelers defense Chase Claypool Browns defense David Njoku Donovan Peoples-Jones Jaylen Warren George Pickens Chris Boswell Cade York Harrison Bryant David Bell Anthony Schwartz Gunner Olszewski Zach Gentry Tier 2

Fadeable tier: Don’t play more than one, if any.

Demetric Felton Miles Boykin MME FTN Optimizer rules for this slate Run the rules without the Tier 2 guys first and see how many teams you get. Only use Tier 2 guys when you are trying to MME 150 and have run out of combinations. If you are not sure what I am referencing by “running out of combinations” scroll to the top of this page and read my “General Rules for Showdowns” link.

Don’t use full salary Lock at least one RB (Harris, Chubb, Hunt) on every lineup. I am considering locking in at least two and adding Jaylen Warren in the mix I am building first using at least one defense on both FD and DK – I likely have over 50% of my lineups with a defense. They are both projected well, but you get a discount on DK. Don’t play more than two WR per team. It doesn’t matter if you have their QB You could technically expand this to WR/TE if you need to get less lineups on the FTN Opto Stack QB with at least 1 pass catcher. I usually go 2 here, but on a low-scoring, weather slate, one might do it Don’t play more than one PIT RB Don’t play more than two CLE RBs Don’t play more than one CLE TE Don’t play more than two WR/TE without their QB Don’t play more than one kicker on a lineup They likely aren’t going to be used for long attempts because of the wind, plus we all know how much Mike Tomlin likes to go for 2 Don’t play a kicker against the opposing defense Don’t play a kicker “naked.” Someone has to move them down the field Don’t play more than one of Warren, Olszewski, Boykin, Gentry, Schwartz, Felton, Bryant) Don’t play more than one of Pickens, Olszewski, Boykin Don’t play more than one of Bell, Schwartz, Felton, Bryant Don’t overlook the “general rules” article linked at the top of this article Put all of the rules above in the FTN lineupEDGE Optimizer . We will also be posting PrizePicks play for Thursday and Sunday. Check out the link on the PrizePicks pick tracker .

Tune into the TNF NFL Showdown Show before lock, where we will break the game down the slate from every angle.

Thursday Night Football: DFS Showdown Strategy, Week 3

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Steelers

Running Back

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