Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans

The Kansas City Chiefs come out of the bye week to host the Tennessee Titans, and these two teams are a very interesting clash of styles. Kansas City has a high-flying offense with Patrick Mahomes at the helm, while Tennessee doesn’t even know who will be the quarterback yet, but they have Derrick Henry . Let’s talk about who to target and what game scripts these teams can find success with.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs -12.5, O/U 46 ( DraftKings Sportsbook )

Tennessee Titans Quarterback For this game to stay close, we want Ryan Tannehill to play ahead of Malik Willis . That doesn’t mean that Tannehill is great, but Willis hasn’t shown signs of being able to even tread water in the NFL yet. While the game script didn’t require it last week, with just 10 passing attempts from Willis, his throws looked very poor, and the Titans didn’t want him throwing the ball. He only had five attempts on the ground and couldn’t even make it to 3.0 DK points. Tannehill is only 17 th in points per dropback, but that would be an improvement compared to Willis.

That isn’t to say that Tannehill has been good, because he’s 28 th in points per game, 27 th in yards and only 22 nd in true completion rate. Kansas City could help him out, since they are only 26 th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed the fifth-most points per game, so the matchup is strong and the game script should work out. When it’s a neutral script, Tennessee is just 30 th in pass rate and dead last in seconds between snaps, so they’ll need to be forced out of their comfort zone for Tannehill to be valuable.

I would lean that Tannehill sits, since the Titans elevated Logan Woodside to the active roster. That would mean it’s going to be Willis, and it’s hard to say a quarterback with rushing upside isn’t in play, but man he just hasn’t looked good at all. The Titans are going to attempt to pound the ball as much as humanly possible in this one.

Running Back Playing Derrick Henry is going to be a difficult decision. If this game stays close, Henry has the highest upside on the slate. If it doesn’t, we could see him be a complete bust, similar to what we saw when the Titans played Buffalo earlier this season. Kansas City has the 11 th -lowest stuff rate on the year, which is a frightening aspect of their run defense. But they are just 17 th in DVOA against the run.

What is troubling for Henry is the Chiefs have only allowed 78.6 yards per game rushing on 17.9 attempts faced. So much of the production against the Chiefs is through the air, as they allow the most targets, receptions and receiving yards in the league . Henry is only 30 th in receptions, and with Willis he’s only had one target. That was a negative shift for Henry, because he had 16 targets in the previous four games, which was helping his floor. The rest of the production for Henry is what we expect, as he’s third in rushing yards, third in points per game, fifth in red-zone touches and is leading the league in carries.

I want to play Henry, but it must be pointed out that he has the lowest floor of the three players over $10,000 on DK. If Willis starts as we expect, Dontrell Hillard is more in play as well. He’s slightly more involved than Henry in the passing game with a 13.2% target share, and he got nine touches last week. Tennessee doesn’t trust Willis to throw, and if Hillard breaks one and scores, you’re going to be in business. Don’t forget how much production Kansas City allows through the air either.

Wide Receiver Willis would really crush the receiving corps as well if he draws the start. He should have more than 10 attempts this week, but no player had more than two targets last week, and most of them went to Robert Woods and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo . No other receiver drew a target last week, so this is quite difficult to project who’s going to be in play for us.

I wouldn’t place the blame entirely onWoods, but he is down to WR67 on the season with just 22 receptions, 256 yards and one score. All of those numbers are outside of the top 55 on the season, and his target share of 22.5% isn’t great for a No. 1 option. He’ll run enough routes out of the slot to face L’Jarius Sneed , who has allowed a 76% completion rate, but it doesn’t feel great playing Woods. The price doesn’t help matters either.

The duo on the outside is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Cody Hollister . I’d normally want to attack the rookie corners from the Chiefs in Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie . Both players have allowed a catch rate of at least 63% and 0.25 points per route or higher, but the floor is clearly zero. Westbrook-Ikhine is leading in target share on the season at 9.3%, but that says a lot. If Tannehill does wind up playing, all of the receivers get a big bump here, but that looks like a grim proposition right now.

Tight End If we thought the wideouts were tough to play, the tight ends aren’t much better. The two targets Okonkwo got last week brought him up to eight on the year, while Austin Hooper is at 14 and Geoff Swaim is at nine. Swaim is playing the most snaps at 65.8%, but all three of these players are under 9.5% for target share, and Hooper was the only other tight end targeted last week.

The Chiefs are in the bottom 10 in defending the tight end as far as points per game, and Swaim leads in red-zone work with three targets compared to two for Hooper and Okonkwo. I suppose we can go back to Okonkwo and hope it extrapolates out if Willis plays again, but no pass-catcher feels like a “good” option this week.

Defense/Special Teams In a vacuum, I don’t think Tennessee is all that poor of a defense, since they are 10 th in total DVOA, ninth in points per game allowed and tied for the fourth-highest pressure rate generated at 32%. Even through just seven games, they have 11 takeaways, and the Chiefs have turned it over eight times.

That’s about where the good news stops, because Kansas City leads in points per game by 2.9 points ahead of the Bills. Kansas City has only allowed 12 sacks so far even though they are the sixth-highest in time spent in the pocket. That’s more of a Mahomes statistic than anything else, and I probably don’t have the guts to play the Titans defense in this spot.

Kicker Randy Bullock hasn’t had a ton of work to do this season with just 11 field goal attempts, and that is just 24 th in the league. He’s hit nine of them and every extra point so far, but you can’t feel great about his opportunity share in this game. You generally don’t beat Mahomes with field goals, and tonight is not likely to be an exception.

Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback We all know that Patrick Mahomes is going to have the highest salary on the slate, but there is no argument against it. Tennessee is 15 th in DVOA against the pass, but they also allow the 10 th -most points per game, and the matchup isn’t always that important for Mahomes, but it doesn’t hurt when it’s a good one. He’s third in points per game, sixth in points per dropback, fifth in yards per attempt and fourth in yards. He also leads in both passing touchdowns and red-zone attempts.

The passer rating is over 100.5 against both man and zone coverages, so it’s difficult to get Mahomes tipped up there. There’s one glaring weakness the Titans have, and the Chiefs should be licking their chops. The Titans have allowed the most yards on deep attempts on the season and a 64% completion rate, while Mahomes is 11 th in deep completion rate.

If there’s an offense that’s going to have something cooked up after a bye week, it’s Kansas City, Mahomes and coach Andy Reid. Something else to keep in mind is that Reid is 20-3 after a bye week in his career, and Mahomes isn’t the type of player I want to fade in a showdown.

Running Back If you thought the Henry decision was tough, the Kansas City running back room is far more complicated. In the last game Kansas City played, we got the news in the morning that Isiah Pacheco would “start”, and he did lead in attempts. The bad news is it was only eight attempts on the ground and zero targets with a snap share under 30%. Surely, that meant that Clyde Edwards-Helaire played a lot, right? That’s a negative, because CEH played under 30% of the snaps as well and had just six carries with just one target.

Edwards-Helaire was bailed out because he scored a rushing touchdown on two red-zone carries, but he still scored under 10 DK points. Jerick McKinnon was the back who led in snaps at 43.8%, but he only touched the ball four times, which makes this situation an impossible one. Tennessee is leading the league in DVOA against the run and has shut backs down for the most part with the eighth-fewest points per game allowed.

Only three teams have allowed fewer rushing yards this year, but they have faced the fourth-most targets. McKinnon and CEH have a 6.8% and 7.6% target share on the season, so I would favor those two, as both also have eight red-zone rushes apiece. I don’t want to sink a lot into the Chiefs' backfield, so I’ll likely end up with McKinnon more than anyone else.

Wide Receiver I’m going to be very tempted to play Kadarius Toney , but I don’t believe he’s going to get enough work right off the bat to be relevant at his salary. I’m not sure if this is a hot take or not, but I believe Toney has the most natural ability in this receiving corps. That didn’t play out very often in New York, but the one glorious game we got from Toney has me excited for what he can do with Kansas City. But his playing time concerns aren’t enough to take the leap outside of large-field MME formats.

Mecole Hardman might be my favorite mix of value and matchup for the receivers in this offense, as he’s playing the most in the slot at 43%. That would put him against Roger McCreary , who has allowed a 78% catch rate. Even though Hardman only has a 10.0% target share, he has five touchdowns and six red-zone targets. You can easily spend up to JuJu Smith-Schuster , who has the highest matchup grade in the fantastic WR/CB Matchup Tool .

He was likely not thrilled that the bye week hit, because he had consecutive games of at least 113 yards receiving and a touchdown, so I do worry he could regress a bit. The positive for him is he’ll face a good bit of Terrance Mitchell , who has given up the highest points per route in the Tennessee secondary at 0.28. Despite the two big games, Smith-Schuster is still WR25 on the season, so he could be a bust, or he could be starting to get comfortable in the Kansas City offense.

Only one player has a higher target share than 22.3% for Smith-Schuster, so we might be getting a glimpse of some more consistent production. I tend to side with there is still going to be a lot of volatility, especially with Toney added to the mix. Marquez Valdes-Scantling knows all about being volatile, and he’s only WR58 on the season, but he is 26 th in aDOT at 12.6 yards. We know the Titans allow the most yards on deep passes, but MVS has to deal with the lone solid corner in Kristain Fulton, who has a 56% catch rate allowed. I’ll be looking toward Hardman ahead of him in most lineups.

Tight End Perhaps the biggest reason the receivers are all going to be difficult to project on a game-to-game basis is the presence of Travis Kelce . He leads the team with a 24.1% target share and has a 25.1% air yards share, slightly behind MVS. Kelce has been dominant this season and leads his position in receptions, yards, touchdowns, red-zone targets and points per game.

If those stats weren’t enough, he’s in the top five in yards per route run, yards after the catch, air yards, targets, routes and deep targets, so there is nothing we can complain about in the profile. The Titans are allowing the 13 th -most points per game, and Kelce is in play in all formats as a captain pick and flex.

Defense/Special Teams The Titans are up to first in pressure rate allowed at a titanic 43%, and even though they’ve only allowed seven sacks, Willis has shown signs of being turnover-prone. Kansas City is 23 rd in points per game allowed and 24 th in total DVOA with just eight takeaways forced.

They are well-rested in this spot, and Willis has two turnovers on a total of 23 opportunities (pass and rushing attempts). He changes the calculus in such a significant way that I’m willing to play an average defense at a slightly elevated salary.

Kicker Harrison Butker is back in action, as he played last week and scored six points, missing his only field goal attempt. He’s only attempted five field goals this season but has two 50+ yard conversions. Anytime you’re tied to an offense this good, you’re in play.

Core Plays Patrick Mahomes Travis Kelce Mecole Hardman

Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Tennessee Titans

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