Tenacious Targets: NFL DFS GPP picks for Week 11

This NFL DFS article will give my personal plays for DraftKings and FanDuel. I will walk you through my process of selecting each player. I have gone through each game and position, and these are my favorite plays of the slate.

Note: I will update this Sunday morning if any of the plays change, or I uncover anyone else that should be highly considered for a main lineup.

Quarterback These are the only six quarterbacks I will be rostering in MME this week, in order.

Josh Allen off a loss Justin Fields off a loss Gap

Joe Burrow off a bye Dak Prescott off a loss Jalen Hurts off a loss Lamar Jackson off a bye Justin Fields, Chicago Bears Justin Fields returns to his home state, to play against his favorite team growing up, that passed on him in the draft, in the midst of his NFL breakout. It all kind of lines up great for him. The Falcons defense started out scrappy but has since reverted to what we all thought they would be, which is bad. The good thing for the Falcons is that A.J. Terrell could be back, which will limit what Fields will be able to do downfield on the outside on a consistent bases, however where Fields hurts you the most is with his legs. That said, even if the downfield passes are a little tough to complete, it still isn’t hard. Atlanta has given up the most receiving yards and the second highest YPA in the league (7.65).

Fields leads the league in scrambles while be pressured, while being fifth in yards per scramble (9.5 yards). The Falcons’ defensive is dead last in pressure percentage and second to last in sack percentage. Fields truly should be able to do whatever he wants on the ground, and he is going to want to do a lot.

Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet are the best options to pair him up with. Terrell, if he plays, would see far more Chase Claypool than Mooney, who runs out of the slot. The Falcons also have given up the third most receptions and yards to tight end.

Note on Josh Allen I had my reservations last week about Josh Allen , with his elbow injury, but he looked fine throwing and still showed his toughness running the ball and lowering his shoulder to gain additional yardage against the Vikings. The Browns defense is poor all around. They are incapable of stopping the run, while also being susceptible through the air. They allow a 7.62 YPA, and only gotten 3 interceptions this season. Receivers are securing 64% of their targets against them. While Allen is not coming in lightly rostered by any means, I do think he will be lower rostered than he should be with all the other spend-ups around him. He has the healthiest and most elite receiving/tight end core available out of Jalen Hurts , Joe Burrow , Justin Fields , Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson . Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are both set up for huge games in the dome.

Others in the FTN Optimizer Player Pool Check out the FTN NFL DFS Optimizer when making your lineup.

Best of the rest, in order. I will have these mixed in my MME lineups.

Dak Prescott : Pair with CeeDee Lamb , Michael Gallup and/or Dalton Schultz Joe Burrow : Pair with Tee Higgins and/or Tyler Boyd Jalen Hurts : Pair with DeVonta Smith and/or A.J. Brown Lamar Jackson : Pair with starting TE and/or Devin Duvernay Running Back Saquon Barkley, New York Giants This man got 35 carries last week in a matchup where you knew they had to run the ball. He finished Week 10 with 152 yards and a TD against the Texans. The Giants surely want to run that gameplan back against the Lions in a cold game in NY with 15 MPH winds most of the afternoon. The Lions are just as bad against the run as the Texans are. They have given up one more rushing TD, while also being bottom four in almost every significant rushing defense metric. Sure, he will be popular, but he also comes with a high floor and high ceiling. He is the cash play RB, and someone to get exposure to in tournaments.

Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders Another week, another time to target the Houston run defense. Both Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson are in play here, but I lean Robinson coming off a game with 26 rushing attempts. The Texans are bottom four in rushing TDs allowed, rushing yards allowed, YPA (5.24), stuff rate (43.09) and gash rate (16.72%). Gibson is the much-preferred pass-catching back — even more so with J.D. McKissic out — but they likely don’t have to rely on that as often in this matchup. Robinson is trending to get his number called more in the red zone, which is the most important thing. Last week, Robinson looked great pushing the ball over the goal line against the Eagles, and I expect that same exact type of effort this week. If the Commanders give Robinson another 20-plus touches here, he is going over 100 yards and scoring at least once and at $5,300 on DraftKings, that gets it done.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears The loss of Khalil Herbert is going to benefit David Montgomery ’s touches plenty. Herbert looked great. He was more explosive, and the Bears OC took note. He established himself as a clear RB 1.2, getting double-digit touches in three of his last four games. If we go back and look at games Herbert wasn’t as involved last season, you see Montgomery getting a steady dose of 20-carry games while also being used more in the passing game. I may opt to make a rule to use either Fields or Montgomery in the majority of my lineups as leverage. The Falcons have given up the fifth-most rushing TDs this year, but as I mentioned above are also very bad a defending running QBs.

Best of the Rest (in Order) Nick Chubb Jonathan Taylor Dalvin Cook

Others in the FTN Optimizer Player Pool Spend-up : Joe Mixon Mid : Devin Singletary , Tony Pollard , D'Onta Foreman , Cordarrelle Patterson . Kenyan Drake Boom or Bust : Kyren Williams (he has the hands, the Rams have no Cooper Kupp )

Wide Receiver CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys This game could be a shootout, and the receiver in the best spot is CeeDee Lamb . He runs out of the slot, which means a lot Chandon Sullivan , who gives up a massive 87% catch rate. If the Cowboys wanted to, they could keep Lamb away from Patrick Peterson the majority of the game. Peterson lines up on the outside, which hurts Michael Gallup . The Vikings have given up the fifth-most yard to the slot and the third-most receiving yards per game.

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles DeVonta Smith is underpriced at only $6,200 on DraftKings. He plays all over the field, which means he should see some Stephon Gilmore . Gilmore has shadowed three times this season, and he may do so again this week. If he does, I would have to assume he is on A.J. Brown for a larger portion of the game. This gives Smith a plus matchup for more than half of the game against Isaiah Rodgers (80% catch rate) and Kenny Moore (72% catch rate). Rodgers has given up the third-most yards to opposing receivers in 2022 in 10 games. Also, don’t dismiss that the Eagles are missing their tight end, Dallas Goedert , meaning more passes funneled to the big two receivers and Philly.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers Diontae Johnson has not broken out this season but had to deal with bad QB play at the beginning of the season and now the breaking in of the QB of the future for the Steelers, Kenny Pickett . That said, he is still averaging about the same number of targets per game (9) yet has not scored a single TD yet. His salary is down to $5,800, and nobody is going to play him. He is going to line up against Eli Apple for a large portion of the game, with Cam Taylor-Britt the rest. Both are winnable matchups for Johnson. His production looks “not elite” in the box score, but he has also been hindered by being targeted for defensive pass interfere more than any other Steelers receivers. There was also talk in the Steelers locker room about how he is not getting targeted enough when being “wide open.” Hopefully Pickett will enter the game with the mindset to get the Steelers best WR the ball. I also expect the Steelers to be trailing here, which means more airing it out the second half of the game. Johnson is a GPP play.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals I want someone on the Bengals offense, coming off the bye, going up against a bad (yet getting healthier) Pittsburgh defense. The big piece is that Minkah Fitzpatrick is expected to try and play only six days after an appendectomy. While he is a very talented back, I cannot image he is going to 100%, even though it was a relatively minor surgery. Either way, Fitzpatrick isn’t going to occupy the slot much, if any. That is where Tyler Boyd will live against Arthur Maulet , who yields a 76% catch rate. He is priced for a floor game but has the upside we need in that price range. In Boyd’s last three games against the Steelers with Joe Burrow at QB, he has 2 TDs. He has 5 total TDs against them in 11 career games, yet his role is now expanded with no Ja’Marr Chase, and Burrow is clearly a huge upgrade from when Andy Dalton was throwing him the pigskin.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings The last time out against the Cowboys, Justin Jefferson was held to only 2 catches, shadowed by Trevon Diggs . The shadow is likely going to happen again. While I do not think Diggs will be as effective (because Jefferson is on another planet right now), he may be able to limit him to an average week (which for Jefferson still isn’t bad). I am going to make a few teams with Adam Thielen . The former GPP winner has clearly fallen out of favor with Kirk Cousins , yet Cousins has still targeted him a consistent number of times. He only has one game with under 7 targets this season. Thielen has a nice history against the Cowboys. In three games played he has 21 catches for 287 yards and 3 TDs. No, that doesn’t really mean much, but it is interesting nonetheless. He is not a smash play; he comes with significant risk. But if you are fading both Jefferson and Dalvin Cook , it makes some since to take a stab on Thielen.

Note on Courtland Sutton I am a known Courtland Sutton hater, but what am I supposed to do here? He is about to pull double-digit targets against, with Jerry Jeudy ruled out. That said, he is going to run most of his routes against Rock Ya-Sin , the Raiders’ best corner. Sutton is overrated, and Ya-Sin is probably underrated. I don’t love the play, but the price is good enough to take a shot. The bad news for Sutton is Wilson still looks terrible. Sutton should get some catches, but he’s going to need to break his five-game TD-less streak. I prefer going to TE Greg Dulcich .

Best of the Rest Stefon Diggs Justin Jefferson Amon Ra-St. Brown A.J. Brown Darnell Mooney (see Justin Fields ) Terry McLaurin Gabe Davis Michael Pittman Drake London Allen Robinson Tee Higgins Garrett Wilson Darius Slayton

Others in the FTN Optimizer Player Pool Donovan Peoples-Jones Chris Moore Isaiah McKenzie Parris Campbell Nico Collins Damiere Byrd Elijah Moore

Tight End Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos The Broncos are going to have to spread the ball out a little more with no Jerry Jeudy , and Greg Dulcich (while having already got a significant target share for a TE) should be in line for more work. The Raiders are one of the worst defenses in the league, especially against the tight end. They have allowed 6 receiving TDs to the position thus far, tied for second most in the NFL. Dulcich came in and quickly earned the trust of Russell Wilson , scoring double-digit DK points in each of his first three games, all with only scoring once. He will work the intermediate part of the field, but as we saw last week can also be a downfield threat (if Wilson doesn’t overthrow him). On paper, this will be the easiest matchup for Dulcich in his short NFL career.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears I guess I have to play Cole Kmet at $4,100 in some lineups and not ignore the fact the Justin Fields clearly has no issue throwing him multiple touchdowns every week. I mentioned earlier how bad the Falcons have been against tight ends, as far as receptions and yards go. They have limited them to only 1 touchdown, but that is an outlier. As much as I was off Kmet to start the year, I can’t ignore what him and Fields have been doing the past few weeks.

Note on Mark Andrews Mark Andrews practiced, catching routes in the early portion of last practice. It appears he is leaning toward playing, but it is not yet guaranteed. If he was out, Isaiah Likely would be a strong, cheap TE option this week.

Others in the FTN Optimizer Player Pool Mid : Dalton Schultz Value : Tyler Higbee , Tyler Conklin , Juwan Johnson , Hayden Hurst , Jack Stoll

Defense/Special Teams New York Jets New Orleans Saints Philadelphia Eagles New England Patriots Washington Commanders

Again, I will update my plays Sunday morning if anything changes.

Check out my cheat sheet , that will also be updated by Sunday, with any additional plays.

Tenacious Targets: NFL DFS GPP picks for Week 11

Quarterback

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

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