Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
For the first time all season, the NFL has used the flex option for Sunday Night Football, and we get the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s a big game in the AFC West, and it is going to be packed with star players, even though both teams are going to be short-handed in some way. It is Week 11, after all. Let’s break it all down and see who we like.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes might be missing a couple of receivers, but it’s not likely to matter for him. He’s still leading the league in yards and passing touchdowns while sitting third in attempts, and the profile looks like what you would expect for a player who is among the best the NFL has to offer. Mahomes is second in points per game, seventh in points per dropback, fourth in yards per attempt, seventh in deep completion rate and fifth in clean pocket completion.
The Chargers only give up the 12th-fewest points per game, and that matches sitting 12th in DVOA against the pass, but matchups never seem to matter for Mahomes. It is worth noting that this defense did hold him to his lowest fantasy output on the season in Week 2, but that isn’t enough for me to fade him here. The Chargers have faced the eighth-fewest attempts per game this year in part because the run defense is so bad, but in neutral scripts, Kansas City has the highest pass rate in football. It also shouldn’t matter that the Chargers blitz the 10th most in the league since Mahomes is still over 101.0 passer rating when blitzed this year with an 8:2 TD: INT ratio.
Running Back
One of the most important pieces of this game to get right could be this backfield, which suddenly appears to be straightforward. The big news from last week was that Clyde Edwards-Helaire played four snaps and had zero touches. You could argue maybe it was a one-week thing, but his snaps have gone from 29% to 15% to 6% in the past three games. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Chiefs put in a claim for running back Eno Benjamin after he was released from Arizona. They may not have gotten him, but it says an awful lot that they tried. You can play Edwards-Helaire in a few lineups if you MME, but I think the Chiefs are telling us everything we need to know.
Isiah Pacheco has taken control of this backfield with 29 carries over the last three games, and if he gets another 16 this week, he has a strong chance to have a big game. The Chargers have one of the five worst run defenses in football with the second-highest yards per attempt allowed, and they allow the third-most points per game. Additionally, only the Texans allow more rushing yards per game, and they are the only two teams with over 130 yards per game allowed. Pacheco only has 60 carries overall but has nine evaded tackles and three breakaway runs, so he has to be one of the main targets here.
I believe Jerick McKinnon is certainly in play and is a solid complement if Edwards-Helaire is banished because Pacheco has just three targets on the season. McKinnon as a passing-down back is valuable if he’s going to be the only player in that role, but I would say that we shouldn’t expect another eight targets. That’s possible, but the loss of JuJu Smith-Schuster helped boost that total last week. The Chargers do allow an average of 4.8 receptions for 30.1 yards on the year, so he’s a fine play. I am concerned that CEH gets some burn here, but the story of the past three games calms those worries to some degree.
Wide Receiver
I’m going to assume Kadarius Toney is going to be one of the most popular plays on this slate after he had a big game last week. Toney looked like a first-rounder last week, and his hamstring is healthy (if it was ever hurt this year) while the Chiefs are missing two receivers. The even scarier part is Toney only ran a route 41% of the time last week and was targeted 29% of the time when he was out there. That is an elite rate, and for some context, Justin Jefferson is at 27.7% for his target rate for the year. If Toney even moves to 65-70% of the snaps, he could have one of the highest ceilings on the slate. His matchup grades out the best of any Chiefs receiver in the WR/CB Matchup Tool, and the slot corner for the Chargers is Bryce Callahan, who allows a 69% catch rate. Of course, the caveat is a limited sample size, but Toney has produced 0.51 points per route which is comparable to players like Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and DeAndre Hopkins.
The next two on the depth chart could provide some leverage here as well. The focus will be on Toney, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson should be in line for expanded roles. MVS only has a 12.5% target share on the season but has a 21.6% air yards share. He has a 12.7-yard aDOT and Watson has a 13.7-yard mark, but I could see Watson coming down a little. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are both out, and they both were hovering right about eight yards, so those roles probably go more toward Toney and Watson. The matchups are a little tougher, as MVS should face Asante Samuel, who’s only allowed a 57% catch rate while Watson should face Michael Davis, who’s allowed a 67% catch rate. Kansas City moves everyone around, so it won’t be a stagnant matchup for anyone. I have it ranked Toney by a lot, then I’m willing to roll the dice on Watson ahead of Valdes-Scantling if I need the salary.
Tight End
When we’re talking about the receivers, you’d better not forget about Travis Kelce. Just like Mahomes, he was held to his worst game against the Chargers in Week 2, and they have allowed the 10th-fewest points per game to the position. Still, it’s so scary to fade Kelce on a normal showdown slate, and it’s even worse when the receiving corps is banged up.
He’s already leading the team in target share (24.4%) and air yards share (24.5%), so I wouldn’t expect that to go down. Among tight ends, Kelce leads in points per game, touchdowns, yards, receptions, red-zone targets and targets. I think fading him is going to not work out in this one, and the Mahomes/Kelce pairing is my highest priority on a loaded slate.
Defense/Special Teams
With how many passing attempts we could see this game, the defenses will likely fly under the radar, but they’re going to have plenty of cracks at turnovers and sacks. Kansas City is only 22nd in total DVOA and has only forced eight turnovers, so that is not an ideal fit. Justin Herbert has also been a magician in the pocket this season because the Chargers have allowed the seventh-highest pressure rate but only given up 13 actual sacks, the fewest in the league.
Kansas City can get after the quarterback a little bit, as they are 10th in sacks on the season and 19th in points allowed per game. This unit is coming around a bit, as they’ve only allowed 19.0 points per game in the past three while the Chargers are 16th in points scored per game. I’m not jumping to play either defense, but don’t totally leave them out of an MME build. A defensive or special teams touchdown can break the slate.
Kicker
Harrison Butker has been back since Week 6, but his accuracy has been very difficult to trust. He’s only hit four of his seven attempts and has missed two of his last five extra points, so he’s been far from an auto-play. The Chargers defense is seventh in red-zone touchdown rate allowed, so if the losses at receiver hurt Kansas City close to the goal line, Butker could benefit.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
This could easily come back to bite me since his receiving corps finally looks like it will be mostly healthy, but it’s been a bad year for Justin Herbert. It’s far from all his fault, but he’s just 29th in points per dropback, 12th in points per game, 34th in yards per attempt and sixth in yards. The Charges offense is eighth in pass rate in neutral scripts, so we should see plenty of dropbacks here, and Herbert has to be thrilled to have some help back in the lineup – even with a patchwork offensive line and receiving corps.
He’s 10th in true completion rate and first in both pressured and play-action completion rates. The latter may be a big deal in this game because the Chiefs are allowing the fifth-highest completion rate when they face play-action at 72.5%. Herbert may function well under pressure as far as completing passes, but his passer rating does drop to 67.8, so that’s still a route to hurt him and the offense. Kansas City is 22nd in DVOA against the pass and allows the seventh-most points per game, so the matchup is good for Herbert. It would be great if we can fit both quarterbacks with a stacking partner, but that could really be a challenge in this spot.
Running Back
Of the most expensive players on this slate, I think Austin Ekeler would be the third one I’m going to play. It’s not so much about how he’s been playing, because Ekeler is RB1 in points per game despite sitting just 25th in rushing yards. He’s been dominant as far as catching passes with 67 receptions for 420 yards, both the highest marks among running backs. I don’t believe that the 21.9% target share in the offense continues to funnel his way with the return of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. We should note that Isaiah Spiller is getting a little bit of work behind Ekeler, but that doesn’t appear to be any real threat.
The biggest issue for this theory is the Chiefs are second in targets faced, last in receptions allowed and 31st in receiving yards allowed. It’s the perfect spot for Ekeler statistically, while the Chiefs are just 17th in DVOA against the run. This game demands you make some tough decisions since you can’t realistically afford the top four players. Ekeler is a strong play, but Mahomes and Kelce are the priority.
Wide Receiver
The cavalry's here for the receiving corps, as Williams and Allen are slated to play. Williams is still leading the team in air yards share at 30.3% and is WR13 in points per game, but we should remember that Allen has played so little of the season. When he was active, he was being targeted at a 20.3% rate and is still 18th in unrealized air yards. Williams will be on the boundary almost the whole night which means a heavy dose of Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams, and neither corner is all that scary.
They are both under 135 routes covered so far, but Williams has allowed 0.35 points per route and McDuffie is at a 67% catch rate allowed. As for Allen, there’s no real way to tell what to expect from him at this juncture. He's only played a few snaps this entire year and has just six total targets. If he’s full-go, the matchup for him in the slot is great against L’Jarius Sneed. He’s giving up 0.30 points per route and a 74% catch rate which is a very bad mix.
I don’t mind Joshua Palmer, but he’s a little expensive to be back as the third wheel. That’s the best role for him, as even though he’s been elevated almost the entire season, he’s WR43 in points per game and 36th in receptions. It’s not a shock that his matchup grades out as the worst of the three, but it could be tough to hit value. If Allen is out, that would change the calculus and would bump Palmer and bring DeAndre Carter back into the mix as well.
Tight End
It looks like Gerald Everett is going to miss this game, as he was added to the injury report on Saturday, never a good sign. Donald Parham is on IR, so this could be a big opportunity for Tre’ McKitty. He played 77.6% of the snaps last week as Everett left early and saw six targets, a 17.1% share. The receivers coming back could limit those looks to some extent, but we would expect the Chargers to be passing an awful lot and he is very inexpensive. The Chiefs are in the bottom 12 in points allowed per game to the position, and Everett did have a 14.7% target share in the offense with nine red-zone targets (co-leading the team). If McKitty gets even 70% of that role, he’s going to be a solid shot at the salary. Richard Rodgers also played about 22% of the snaps but only had one target.
Defense/Special Teams
Nobody will ever want to play a defense against the Chiefs, as they look as dangerous as ever and lead in points per game by 2.2. Los Angeles is missing plenty of impact players that they started with this year, but with one game under their belt of limiting Mahomes and Kelce, you could take that route.
They are 20th in DVOA and 29th in points allowed per game, so I can’t pound the table and say to play them. Just like the Kansas City unit, they are MME-viable but that’s about it. The Chiefs do have 12 turnovers, but they have only allowed 16 sacks, so it’s a tough road for both sides.
Kicker
We’ll have another slate with Dicker the Kicker in play, as Dustin Hopkins is doubtful. Cameron Dicker has only played three games for the Charges but has yet to miss a kick of any kind. The biggest fear as always is you don’t generally beat the Chiefs with field goals, and Los Angeles can be aggressive at times. He’s a fine play but not someone I’m jamming in.
