Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

This is one of those games that looked better at the start of the season since the Green Bay Packers have been below expectations. We don’t even have the Philadelphia Eagles chasing an undefeated season anymore, but what we do have is a fight in the NFC East. The Cowboys won on Thursday to keep the pressure on the Eagles, and those two teams will clash late in the season. Green Bay is fighting for any glimmer of hope, so the game should be good even with Green Bay’s disappointing record.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles Eagles -6.5, O/U 46 (Odds From DraftKings Sportsbook)

Green Bay Packers Quarterback This couldn’t be much worse of a matchup for Aaron Rodgers considering he’s on the road, the Eagles are third in DVOA against the pass and they allow the fewest points per game to the position. It hasn’t been a banner year for Rodgers either, and I’m not looking to play him. He’s only 20 th in points per dropback and 21 st in points per game while surprisingly 22 nd in true completion rate. Rodgers has struggled to function when he's been pressured this season, as his passer rating drops to 52.2. That has left him at the 12 th -highest difference in passer rating when not pressured since he’s at 93.2 when not pressured. The problem is the Eagles have the third-highest pressure rate in football.

Rodgers might be 10 th in completion rate this year in play-action, but the passer rating only rises to 98.5 and the Eagles are in the top half of the league in passer rating allowed. We’re not getting any kind of discount on Rodgers in the matchup, and the Eagles are one of five teams that allow a completion rate under 60% on the year. I believe we can get away with not playing him in this game even though he still has the safety of quarterback points.

Running Back This was a much better matchup a couple of weeks ago before the Eagles signed Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh to clog up the middle of the defensive line. Aaron Jones is coming off an average game of 14 DK points in a tough matchup against the Titans, and he’s been difficult to figure out this season. Jones is only 13 th in carries but seventh in rushing yards, ninth in receiving yards, seventh in receptions and seventh in targets. That’s accumulated to RB12 in points per game, but in five of 11 games he hasn’t even finished as a top-24 weekly option.

That’s a risky play for a running back who is over $10,000 in an average matchup, as Philly is allowing the 14 th -most points per game and ranks 26 th in DVOA against the run. Jones is excellent when he gets the touches, as he’s in the top 12 in yards created per touch and yards per touch with the 10 th -highest breakaway run rate. The Eagles should improve on the 11 th -highest gash run rate and the sixth-worst stuff rate. While I wish Jones was more involved in the red zone (just 25 th in touches), he’s certainly in play here. AJ Dillon has been unable to get anything going this year, as he hasn’t cleared double-digit DK points since Week 1. He’s RB47 in points per game and just 27 th in rushing yards on the season. Even the touchdown equity isn’t that great this year since he’s only 43 rd in red-zone touches, so he’s a relatively safe fade.

Wide Receiver The Green Bay receiver of the week might wind up being Randall Cobb this week since he has the matchup we typically have wanted most this season. Philly has allowed the fifth-most points per game against the slot receiver, and that was with corner Avonte Maddox playing most of the season. Josiah Scott has taken over those duties now with Maddox injured, and through his 138 routes covered, he’s allowing a 71% catch rate and 0.31 points per route. Cobb has been playing out of the slot at 85% of the time, and despite playing about 55% of the snaps last week he had six targets and scored 13.3 DK points. He will be a core play for me on DK, especially where I get a point per reception.

After that, it gets a little tougher. Christian Watson has been the fantasy darling the past two weeks, with five touchdowns, four red-zone targets, a 25% target share and a 45.4% air yards share. The matchup could lead him into James Bradberry for most of the night. That’s better than facing Darius Slay , but Bradberry has a 45% catch rate and 0.15 points per route, so better is a relative term. What is interesting is Watson and Allen Lazard have played in the slot around 40% each as well, so the Packers could try to get those receivers away from the boundary corners at times. Lazard has to deal with Slay the most, and that’s not something we can get too excited about.

I would have these three ranked the same way they’re graded in the WR/CB Matchup Tool as Cobb, Watson and then Lazard, even though Lazard has the lead in total targets the past two games with 15. That is me mostly avoiding Slay. Sammy Watkins is under 35% of the snaps in the past two weeks and has just five targets, so he’s not looking like a priority.

Tight End The Green Bay receiving corps is close to as healthy as they’ve been all season, and that has made Robert Tonyan an afterthought in the past two weeks. He only has five total targets and an 8.9% target share. He’s scored 5.7 DK points combined in the past two weeks, and Philly is ninth against tight ends, one of nine teams not allowing even 10 points to the position. Tonyan is 11 th in targets, eighth in receptions, 14 th in yards and just 23 rd in points per game with only one touchdown. Tonyan is still hovering around 61% of the snaps and is not a player I’ll jam in. Josiah Deguara always lurks but has just 12 targets on the season with a total of just 106 yards.

Defense/Special Teams Overall, Philly is fourth in points per game, but they have dropped a little bit in the past three weeks since they’re averaging under 22.5 points in that span. Green Bay is just 20 th in total DVOA on the year and have forced just 11 takeaways. They’re generating a high pressure rate of 32%, but they aren’t getting to the QB with just a 6% sack rate while ranking 16 th in points per game allowed. They are very inexpensive, but it’s hard to see what they’re going to do well enough to make them worth a play in anything but MME.

Kicker The Packers are just under seven-point underdogs in this one, so kicking field goals may not happen a lot. Still, Mason Crosby is under $4,000, and they could need to shave the deficit down to one score late in the game. He only has 14 attempts, so he hasn’t had a lot of work, making him a risky option. The Eagles are allowing the second-fewest yards per game, so it may be tough for Green Bay to even move the ball that much.

Philadelphia Eagles Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been one of the steadiest players in fantasy this season and has a ceiling that is rivaled by just a handful of players. He hasn’t thrown for over 190 yards in three of the past five games but has at least 21 DK points in four of them. Hurts is also second in points per dropback and third in points per game, and the difference between him and Rodgers in salary is only $1,600. That’s not enough to make Rodgers a priority ahead of Hurts, as he’s leading the position in rushing touchdowns with eight. He’s also leading in red-zone carries, and it hasn’t mattered much what kind of defenses he’s faced, be it zone or man.

The Packers have used their corners in zone over 70% of the time, and Hurts has ripped apart zone defenses with a 122.8 passer rating, leading the position. Green Bay is 12 th in DVOA against the pass and has allowed the eighth-fewest points per game, but Hurts has been difficult to contain. Where Green Bay has been vulnerable is defending the deep pass, which Hurts is third in completion rate. The Packers have allowed the fourth-highest completion rate, while Hurts has a 148.4 passer rating (2nd), so he will continue to be a high priority in the showdown format.

Running Back This is not the worst Miles Sanders spot we’ve ever had, as Green Bay has the 11 th -lowest stuff rate and ranks 29 th in DVOA against the run. They’ve also allowed the 11 th -most points to backs since they’ve given up the third-most rushing yards per game. That sets up Philly and Sanders nicely since he’s eighth in carries, eighth in rushing yards and 29 th in yards per touch. Sanders isn’t an explosive back, since he only sits 41 st in breakaway run rate, but the Eagles are home favorites and the Packers haven’t stopped the run.

Some things will just take care of themselves, but the largest concern is the lack of involvement in the pass game. We’ve seen if the game script is not going properly for Philly, the touches get rolled back for Sanders since he only has 25 touches in the past two games combined. I think this is where Philly can get back to the run game and find success.

For one week at least, Boston Scott played a couple more snaps than Kenneth Gainwell and touched the ball at a 5-1 rate. It’s not like Scott did a whole lot with said touches with just 12 total yards, and both players were on the field for under 15 snaps, so the chance to make an impact is limited. What did matter was Scott had all three carries in the red zone, so I would be fine to gamble on him over Gainwell, but it’s not someone I’m rushing to play.

Wide Receiver A.J. Brown is sort of like an Aaron Jones clone. If you take the overall picture, Brown is WR11 in points per game, 12 th in targets, 18 th in receptions and eighth in receiving yards. However, he also has five games where he wasn’t a top-24 receiver, and his season has been defined by plenty of up-and-down results. This is not to say Brown or Jones shouldn’t be played – rather, I’m highlighting the risk with such high salaries involved. Brown is still third in yards run per route, but I have some worries that the ankle injury he dealt with against Washington is still bothering him. The matchup with Jaire Alexander through a good chunk of his routes is not much of a concern for me since Alexander is allowing 0.26 points per route on a 59% catch rate.

You could argue that DeVonta Smith has the better matchup with Rasul Douglas , who has allowed a 72% catch rate but 0.21 points per route. Smith is over $3,000 less expensive and has outscored Brown in each of the last two games, and the target share isn’t that far apart. Brown is at 29.4% and Smith is at 25.4%, but this has only resulted in 11 raw targets more for Brown. The red zone has been Brown’s by a 12-5 margin but he’s under 40 points ahead of Smith, not quite as high as you would think.

Smith is still 10 th in receptions, but since he is lagging in air yards share (29.0% to 41.8%), he will likely be less popular than Brown. That is interesting leverage. We’ve seen Quez Watkins be a deep threat, and that is something he could hit against the Packers, but keep in mind that the target share is 10.7% and he has just 14 receptions. It’s generally a long bomb or nothing.

Tight End The usage for tight ends after the injury for Dallas Goedert was not super encouraging. Jack Stoll played just over 80% of the snaps but earned just one target, while Grant Calcaterra was on the field for 27.9% of snaps but wasn’t targeted. Things can change now that Stoll has a game under his belt, but we were hoping for more. The Packers are 11 th in the league in points per game allowed to the position, and even though Goedert had an 18.8% target share, it doesn’t appear that Stoll is going to come close to filling that. He’s too cheap to ignore since he’s on the field that much, so I’ll be using him and just hoping for some more utilization this week. He did lead in routes by a good bit, running 21 to just six for Calcaterra.

Defense/Special Teams They are higher than normal for a defense, but they also lead the league in takeaways, rank fourth in total DVOA, sixth in points per game allowed and are tied for the third-most sacks. The resume this season is about as much as we can ask from a fantasy option, and Green Bay has turned it over an awful lot, 15 times to be exact. Only four teams have a higher number, and the Packers are also just 26 th in points per game. I’m not thrilled with paying so much, but the matchup is very strong.

Kicker The downside to the Eagles being one of the best offenses in football is they have no problem going for it on fourth down (fifth-most attempts in the league). Jake Elliott hasn’t had a lot to do this season but kick extra points. He’s only had nine attempts so far and is averaging under 6.0 DK points per game. He’s always a fine option, but there is a good chance that he just scores one point at a time. He’s had a limited ceiling this year, even for a kicker.

Core Plays Jalen Hurts Randall Cobb Miles Sanders

Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay Packers

Quarterback

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