Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way that sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around in DFS.
1. 33.3%
The beast has awoken. Kawhi Leonard’s usage rate for the season is a measly 26.6%. His player impact estimate is similarly low, at 14.6.
However, it’s been a new Kawhi (or old Kawhi) over his last three games. His usage has soared to a more typical 33.3% and his PIE is 23.8 in that span. Wednesday, he faces the Hornets and their 122.3 defensive rating over their last seven games. Vintage Kawhi, incoming.
2. 1.27
De’Aaron Fox is averaging 1.27 FPPM this season in 32.2 minutes per game. Why is this so intriguing? Wednesday, he gets the ultimate pace boost by playing the Lakers and his minutes have been way up. He’s played 41, 39, and 34 (5 fouls) in his last three games. If we extrapolate his base fantasy points per minute into 38 minutes, that’s an expectation of 48.3 fantasy points.
Add in the pace boost and poor LAL defense, both of which result in the slate’s highest Vegas implied team total, and we have a smash spot.
3. 61.1
I’m not much of a believer in home-road splits… most of the time. I believe there has to be a clear and obvious explanation that you can point to for the discrepancy, otherwise you’re more likely to simply be finding a pattern in randomness.
One such exception is Joel Embiid. On the road, he looks aloof and uninterested. At home in front of the Philly crowd, he looks focused and energized. This shows up in the data, too — not only is he averaging 61.1 DK points per game at home vs 49.7 on the road, but his shooting percentages are nearly identical. His usage climbs to 37.6% at home, he averages more rebounds, steals, and blocks at home, and he even averages fewer fouls at home.
Oh, and the matchup is decent, too:
4. 1.2
Another player who has awoken of late is Markelle Fultz. In his last four games, he’s averaging 1.2 FPPM. His minutes are up, his true shooting percentage is up, his defensive activity is up (10 steals in his last four games), and most importantly, he’s facilitating like crazy. He averages 51. Assists on 9.3 potential assists for the year, but those numbers jump in the last four games to 6.8 assists on 11.5 potential assists per game.
Fultz gets an excellent matchup with Houston’s poor defense and sky-high turnover rate tonight. The Rockets are 30th against primary ball-handlers.
5. 101.3
Most stats in this article direct you toward a player or team. This one is meant to steer you away from the Toronto Raptors. The Knicks have an incredible 101.3 defensive rating over their last seven games, they play slow, and their offense is clicking (meaning less rebound equity, etc.). Shockingly, in the last seven games, their 18.2 net rating is far and away the best in basketball.
