Tenacious Targets: NFL DFS GPP picks for the Conference Championships

This NFL DFS article will give my personal plays for DraftKings and FanDuel. I will walk you through my process of selecting each player. I have gone through each game and position, and these are my favorite plays of the Divisional Round slate.

Below are my favorite plays for the Sunday DFS slate. I found myself writing this more as an MME piece, because that is how I will be playing the two-game slate.

Quarterback Tier 1 Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles These two feel like the highest-upside QBs plays. Joe Burrow ’s passing matchup is going to rank the highest for me against the Chiefs. Pair him at least two of Ja'Marr Chase , Tee Higgins , Tyler Boyd , Hayden Hurst , Joe Mixon or Samaje Perine . Jalen Hurts has to face a difficult matchup in some respects against the 49ers, but also brings the rushing upside. Stacking him with only one pass catcher is required, but two not so much. He tends to alternate ceiling games for A.J. Brown , DeVonta Smith and to a lesser extent Dallas Goedert . If he runs one in, it makes it less likely you need two pass catchers, in what should be the slowest-paced, lowest-scoring game of the day.

It is only a two-game slate, so there isn’t too much digesting of the numbers that needs to be done. Hurts has been elite all season while Burrow has the best all-around receiving core to throw to left in the playoffs.

Tier 2 Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers While Patrick Mahomes is clearly elite, but I would be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about his high ankle sprain. You will hear things online like “if he is playing, he is good to go.” I disagree. This increases your risk because he is clearly not 100%. If this was regular season with nothing on the line, he would not be playing. This is the Conference Championshipss, and a hobbled Mahomes is going to be the Chiefs’ best chance of advancing to the Super Bowl. If he reaggravates it, after hardly running all week, you are going to be in a world of pain. Honestly, even if he was healthy, I would still rank him third due to matchup and lack of running upside. He also has a less than average receiving core, although Travis Kelce and what I expect to be a busy Jerick McKinnon help even that out.

Brock Purdy , despite being cheap, isn’t going to be my guy this week and I likely full fade him. He has a terrible matchup and I do not think you actually need the savings at QB after playing with builds. There are plenty of cheap WR and TE you can spend down on so you don’t have to go with Purdy.

Running Back Tier 1 Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs Christian McCaffrey has the highest ceiling, clearly. If he stays healthy, I would assume he is one of the two highest-scoring RBs. That seems like a good thing to have on a small slate. If the 49ers were to be trailing, you could see him and George Kittle start to rack up the dumpoffs from Purdy in the fourth quarter. Joe Mixon is easier to gravitate to than the Chiefs guys. The Bengals D line has been better than the Chiefs lately, and Mixon will likely get more touches than both Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco .

This feels like more of a McKinnon game than a Pacheco one because I do think the Chiefs will be trailing. McKinnon has been used more in the red zone, but we really didn’t see many red zone opportunities for the Chiefs last week. You need Mahomes to move the ball down the field and McKinnon to convert. That’s how he gets there. Pacheco is just OK. He is a guy that could make optimal if both CMC and Mixon don’t score. I don’t like his matchup against the Bengals.

Tier 2 Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers (questionable) I simply don’t like the matchup for Miles Sanders . I would bet on Hurts to score a rushing TD over him, almost every time, so why wouldn’t I just play Hurts?

Tier 3 Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers (if Mitchell is out) Jordan Mason is not a apples-to-apples replacement for Elijah Mitchell , if he’s out. I would think that the 49ers just lean on CMC more, even though he is also not 100%. Samaje Perine is better on DraftKings where he can rack up more PPR points but is not a priority. He will have some involvement but is going to have to get in the end zone.

Wide Receiver (In order of preference)

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals Target monster with no one on the defense who can keep up with him. I will take him in about a third of my lineups. If I don’t have him on my main, Tee Higgins likely lands there.

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles I am banking on 25% of A.J. Brown ’s routes out of the slot against Jimmie Ward and his time on the outside against Deommodore Lenoir , who gives up the third-highest catch rate on the slate. Ward won’t be able to cover him, and although he will have help over the top, this feels like a matchup Brown can win.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers Deebo Samuel doesn’t have a particularly easy matchup, but I think he gets a few designed runs with the SF RBs banged up. He is also phenomenal after the catch. $5,700 is hard to ignore for Deebo.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals Tyler Boyd should draw the least amount of attention from the KC defense. I have been chasing him a few weeks and am not going to stop this Sunday. He is cheap and makes a lot fit.

Best of the Rest DeVonta Smith , Philadelphia Eagles Tee Higgins , Cincinnati Bengals Brandon Aiyuk , San Francisco 49ers Value Mecole Hardman , Kansas City Chiefs (if he plays) Kadarius Toney , Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs receivers are all incredibly cheap, but there are a lot to choose from. JuJu Smith-Schuster is $4,700, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling , Kadarius Toney , Mecole Hardman (questionable), Skyy Moore and Justin Watson are all priced below $3,700. You would think that at least one of his receivers exceeds value, but how much the ball could be spread around also doesn’t make me feel extremely confident. JuJu and MVS are just simply not reliable, and are leading the way, with Toney, as the most popular WR options to pair Mahomes with. If we hear that Hardman will play a full load of snaps, then he is the best option. He likely comes in the lowest rostered and is unquestionably the Chiefs’ best receiver. Toney is the safest option after him. He gets the slot routes, which we could see Mahomes lean on a bit more depending on his mobility with the ankle sprain.

There really isn’t a lot of value after that. I can throw around names like Quez Watkins , Zach Pascal and Trenton Irwin , but I just don’t think they have a chance in outscoring every single one of the Chiefs value guys. Jauan Jennings is the cheapest I would go. People are going to try and take unnecessary risks below him.

Tight End (Playing 2 is fine)

Tier 1 Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs I plan on adding rules to the opto locking Travis Kelce in over 50% of my lineups, including my main. I am seeing a lot of people saying things on Twitter to the extent of “the Bengals are going to lock in on Kelce,” like that isn’t something almost every team attempts to do. Kelce is still getting fed from whatever QB is under center.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers George Kittle is going slightly underused with people spending up on Kelce.

Tier 2 Dallas Goedert , Philadelphia Eagles Hayden Hurst , Cincinnati Bengals Tier 3 Mitchell Wilcox , Cincinnati Bengals (on non-Hurst lineups) Noah Gray , Kansas City Chiefs Defense/Special Teams I’m not going to lie, I will be mixing all the defenses in. They are listed in order of preference.

Philadelphia Eagles Cincinnati Bengals San Francisco 49ers Kansas City Chiefs

Check out my cheat sheet here, that will also be updated by Saturday with any additional plays.

Also, look at the whole FTN team’s PrizePicks .

Tenacious Targets: NFL DFS GPP picks for the Conference Championships

Quarterback

Tier 1

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati BengalsJalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

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Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles