PGA DFS Hot Takes for the 2023 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play

This week’s hot takes are powered by 10,000 simulations (shoutout to Frank Brank) of the bracket. The simulations use my expected strokes gained projections and our round-to-round standard deviation estimates to produce the probability that each player advances through group stage, reaches the Elite Eight, reaches the Final Four, reaches the final, and wins the whole thing. We can compare these probabilities to the player’s price and rostership to evaluate how strong of a play he is. However, there’s also some necessary strategy beyond that.

PGA DFS is all about weighing the risks and rewards of players in relation to their ownership projections. Often, you have to feel like you're on an island when it comes to your viewpoint of a...