5 Stats to Know: NBA DFS March 21
FTN's Adam Strangis highlights five key stats to know for DFS players on Tuesday's NBA slate.
Mar 21, 2023, 2:05 PM EDT
Tuesday’s six-game NBA DFS slate has games that are on opposite ends of the spectrum. On one hand, two games have a spread of 13 points or higher while the other four games are all under seven points. Additionally, four games have cleared a total of 232 points, but two other games are under 226 points. That’s going to create some challenges as we talk about five players that can help us climb the leaderboards.
1. The Hawks are 19th in rebounds allowed per game
Not only that, but they have been struggling to guard centers all season long and the Pistons may well have a good one on their hands. I would likely prefer playing Marvin Bagley on FanDuel because he’s significantly cheaper and you can play him at the power forward spot. However, James Wiseman still appears to be a dynamite play on both sites and the salary difference on DraftKings is negligible. In this scenario for the Pistons, Wiseman has scored 1.12 points per minute but since he’s been active for Detroit, Wiseman is in the top 10 in paint touches per game (9.2) and he’s third in points per game in the paint (9.9). The fact that the Hawks will play a true center almost every minute of the game should mean the minutes are locked in for Wiseman, as he’s played at least 30 minutes in the past three games. Atlanta is 29th against skilled centers according to the FTN Advanced DvP Tool in addition to ranking 28th in points per game allowed in the paint.
2. The Pistons allow the ninth-highest field goal rate to the roll man in the pick-and-roll
I will be considering playing double-center lineups from this game on DK, but Clint Capela has upside on both sites (and that is why playing Bagley paired with Capela on FD makes a lot of sense) because Capela is in a great spot himself. I’ve been driving the Onyeka Okongwu bandwagon for the past week or so but now, DK has dropped Capela under $6,000 and that is notable. Even with some volatility baked in with the minutes (28, 22, 22, 21, and 29 in the past five games), this is too low of a salary to pass on. Capela scores 1.22 points per minute and has produced 3.8 points per game as the roll man, the 10th-most in the league. With Detroit ranking just 29th against rebounders and 29th in points per game allowed in the paint, Capela is set up to smash and with the Pistons playing Wiseman and Bagley, his size should be needed.
3. Tre Jones scores 1.03 points per minute without Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell
I definitely have some fears that the Spurs could pull some shenanigans with the minutes for Jones, as he started the day listed as doubtful and then went to available once other Spurs have been ruled out. On the other hand, he’s played 32, 34 and 29 minutes in the past three games so San Antonio would have no incentive to play him since they’re in full-on tank mode. He’s going to be the main ball handler and the distributor of the offense although New Orleans is sixth against dimers. Jones does lead the team in passes made (51.5) and potential assists (11.8) on the year while there will be more shots to go around, so Jones and Devonte’ Graham will provide some strong value for this slate.
4. De'Aaron Fox drives to the basket the eighth-most times per game
The Boston Celtics are on the slate, and that means that primary ball handlers are the type of players that I look at immediately. They are 21st against that player type on the year and in the past 15 games, Boston is also 26th against scorers. They are fully healthy for Tuesday’s game against the Kings, but Fox is still not priced correctly on DK. On FD, he’s more in line with where he should be but the number of times he drives to the hoop is going to be a challenge for Boston, especially since Robert Williams is likely going to be limited for his minutes as he comes back from an injury. Fox is fourth in points scored from drives at 12.0 points per game and with the popularity that Trae Young is likely to carry, Fox could be quite sneaky.
5. The Thunder are 23rd against dimers and craft finishers
In addition to that, Oklahoma City is only 16th in points per game allowed in the paint and Russell Westbrook is driving to the basket 9.4 times per game. His minutes have been a little tough to predict game-to-game but he did play 34 minutes in the past game, even with both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard active. He’s still having some trouble shooting the ball (3-12 from the floor in the past game) and it caused him to miss a triple-double. That helps me consider him at the salary because the Thunder are dead last in rebounds allowed, so Westbrook could get to the 10 needed for a potential triple-double again. Oklahoma City is up to second in pace so it’s a great spot for what Westbrook still does well.