NBA DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown (3/21)

We’re closing in on the end of the NBA season, but if you look at the top of the salary grid for Tuesday’s DFS slate, you wouldn’t know it. There are no injuries or rest days in the top stars on this slate to deal with for the first time in a while, at least as things stand. There isn’t much of a reason to suspect that things change, so we may only have one team that offers us value options.

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic Wizards -1, O/U 225.5

Wizards Notes Injuries – Kyle Kuzma (O)

Deni Avdija

He may still come off the bench, but that wouldn’t kill his appeal at all. In the last game against the Kings, he played 28 minutes and scored 27.75 DK points despite a putrid 1-9 shooting performance. On the year, the FTN Splits Tool shows us how Kuzma being out has been a boon for Avdija and he scores 0.86 points per minute.

Bradley Beal

Alex has made a strong point throughout the year that when Beal is chalky, it may not be the worst idea to be lower than the field, especially when he’s expensive. The numbers look strong without Kuzma since he’s at a 33.3% usage rate and has scored 1.30 points per minute, but the periphery stats don’t always show up for him. Beal could score 26-30 real points and still struggle to hit value, despite Orlando being 18 th against scorers.

Player Pool – Kristaps Porzingis , Monte Morris , Daniel Gafford , Corey Kispert

Magic Notes Injuries – Jalen Suggs (O)

Wendell Carter

The FTN Advanced DvP Tool shows us that the Wizards are just 23 rd against skilled centers while Carter is scoring 1.10 points per minute without Suggs on the floor. Washington is seventh in rebounds allowed but losing Kuzma is a hit to their ability in that category and Carter can exploit them ranking 19 th in points per game allowed in the paint.

Cole Anthony

The salary for the main cogs of the Magic are all elevated to a level that brings some slight discomfort with it. However, Anthony is the lowest of the bunch and when Suggs has been off the floor, he’s at 1.00 points per minute with a 21.0% usage rate. In the past two games, Anthony has only logged 29 and 28 minutes but he’s also taken 14 and 15 shots, something that we should be interested in.

Player Pool – Markelle Fultz , Franz Wagner , Paolo Banchero , Gary Harris

Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks Hawks -14, O/U 236

Pistons Notes Injuries – Bojan Bogdanovic , Jalen Duren (O), Isaiah Livers (Q)

Killian Hayes

The Hawks are only 24 th against primary ball handlers, and Hayes is scoring 1.00 points per minute in this scenario for the Pistons. The minutes should continue to be spiked at over 35 as long as the game can stay close and the Hawks ranking seventh in pace helps Hayes’ ability to rack up plenty of stats.

Marvin Bagley

With Duren back out of the lineup, I do want exposure to both Bagley and James Wiseman (more on him in 5 Stats to Know). The FD salary is especially appealing as he scores 0.98 points per minute and should clear 28 minutes with ease. Atlanta is 25 th against rebounders and Bagley has shown he has a ceiling at this salary.

Player Pool – Wiseman, Jaden Ivey , Cory Joseph , Rodney McGruder , Eugene Omoruyi

Hawks Notes Injuries – Dejounte Murray (O)

Trae Young

He cut me deep Sunday when he had one of his worst fantasy games of the season against the Spurs but it’s a new day. This matchup is incredible for Young from the DvP perspective –

If that wasn’t enough, Young has scored 1.54 points per minute with a 38.8% usage rate on the season when Murray is off the floor. The Pistons allow the eighth-highest field goal rate to the ball handler in the pick-and-roll. This is a great bounce-back spot for Young, who had been playing well before the bump in the road and he’s going to be wildly popular without Murray.

Bogdan Bogdanovic

I don’t believe he’s going to start in this game, but he’s logged 500 minutes without Murray on the floor and has scored 0.96 points per minute. That’s a nice bump for him, not to mention the salaries on each site are very reasonable. If he gets up near the 28- to 30-minute mark, Bogdanovic should be a strong bargain and is playable with Young.

Player Pool – Clint Capela , Onyeka Okongwu , AJ Griffin De'Andre Hunter , Saddiq Bey (revenge game, I suppose)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Brooklyn Nets Cavaliers -3, O/U 218.5

Cavaliers Notes Injuries – Jarrett Allen (Q but expected to play)

Donovan Mitchell

The game environment is one of the worst of the night on paper, but Mitchell does have a sliver of upside despite that. Over the past 15 games, Brooklyn is 25 th against primary ball handlers and 20 th against scorers. Mitchell has a 31.8% usage rate and 1.23 points per minute while he’s under $9,000 on DK.

Darius Garland

He’s a little bit underpriced, even with the Cavaliers likely being fully healthy for the first time in a few games. Garland won’t be a core play by any means, but he’s still had a 27.1% usage rate and 1.13 points per minute on the year. In addition, Garland is leading the team in drives at 16.9 times per game while Brooklyn is just 13 th in points per game allowed in the paint.

Player Pool – Jarrett Allen , Evan Mobley , Caris LeVert , Ricky Rubio

Nets Notes Mikal Bridges

I am mostly avoiding this game, but there’s no mistake that Bridges does have an attainable upside. The usage rate is 28.9% along with 1.14 points per minute since he’s been in Brooklyn. He is still scoring 6.4 points per game as a spot-up shooter and that would be right among the league leaders while the Cavaliers are allowing the second-highest field goal rate defending that play type.

Nic Claxton

This will be especially true if Allen returns for Cleveland, but the Nets are going to need Claxton to play as much as he can tonight. In the past 15 games, the Cavaliers are dead last against rim protectors and 25 th against rebounders. This is quietly a strong spot, although I do prefer both centers from the Hawks game. I view Claxton as more of an MME -style play for this slate.

Player Pool – Spencer Dinwiddie , Cameron Johnson , Royce O'Neale (bump if Dorian Finney-Smith sits out), Cam Thomas

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans Pelicans -13, O/U 232

Spurs Notes Injuries – ( insert tank emoji) Devin Vassell , Zach Collins , Jeremy Sochan , Keldon Johnson (O), Devonte' Graham (Q)

Devonte' Graham

We have to be careful about quoting usage rates and points per minute because the Spurs have not been in this scenario very much at all this year. Graham looks like an incredible play with 1.34 points per minute and a 25.5% usage rate, but the sample is around 25 minutes. I will be playing plenty of Graham just because the rotations will be so condensed but expecting 1.34 points per minute is likely a little much.

Sandro Mamukelashvili

While I am interested in playing lineups that have both James Wiseman and Clint Capela in them, Mamukelashvili has to be a great option at this position as well. In the last game that Collins missed, he played 28 non-overtime minutes and shot just 4-13 from the floor. That is low even for his ability and he took seven 3-point attempts. The Pelicans are allowing the sixth-highest frequency from beyond the arc and there are plenty of shot opportunities to be had in this game.

Player Pool – Malaki Branham , Romeo Langford , Blake Wesley , Keita Bates-Diop

Pelicans Notes Injuries – Zion Williamson (O)

Jonas Valanciunas

My normal approach would be this one is quite scary, because while Valanciunas has logged over 32 minutes in each of the past two games, there is never a guarantee that replicates in this game. Houston had Alperen Sengun to help Valanciunas on the floor in the past two games, but this is a matchup where Valanciunas can go nuclear in any reasonable amount of minutes. However, I have to give credit to Winky in the FTN Discord for bringing this information to us, and it does give me a lot more confidence in playing Valanciunas. Additionally, it is another reason why the FTN Discord is the best and is wildly helpful to everyone every day.

The center position is loaded with great options. but Valanciunas is one of them since he’s scoring 1.22 points per minute on the season without Zion on the floor. The matchup is among the best in the league on top of everything else.

Trey Murphy

I’ll once again consider him even though the salary is about as high as it can go for him. Murphy is still hitting his 3-point attempts at a 39.8% rate and the Spurs are allowing the highest field goal rate from deep in the league. Murphy is averaging almost 10 attempts per game in the last five and if the shot is right, he can get on top of this salary. This is a win the Pelicans badly need so we should expect the minutes for Murphy III to remain at the highest end he can handle.

Player Pool – Brandon Ingram , CJ McCollum , Herbert Jones , Larry Nance

Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings Celtics -5, O/U 238

Celtics Notes Jayson Tatum

The Kings continue to be a poor defensive team overall, and Tatum is well-positioned to exploit that, even though the Celtics are finally healthy. Now, the salary is still a little tough to swallow when we consider his recent form because, in the past five games, he’s shooting under 38% from the floor and is scoring an average of under 50.0 DK points. The Kings are 25 th against crafty finishers and allow the third-highest field goal rate from downtown, another factor that can help Tatum break out of the slump.

Jaylen Brown

It’s easier to fit Brown and it’s not like you’re taking a giant leap backward in production since he’s scoring 1.20 points per minute and has a 31.2% usage rate. Tatum has the higher ceiling on any given night to be sure, but the salary difference does allow for some different builds while the Kings are 21 st against scorers in the last 15 games.

Player Pool – Malcolm Brogdon , Marcus Smart , Derrick White , Robert Williams , Al Horford

Kings Notes Injuries – Kevin Huerter (Q)

Keegan Murray

I would prefer that Huerter remains out but in the last four games, Murray has logged at least 30 minutes in each one. Additionally, these past two games without Huerter have seen Murray take a combined 24 3-point attempts, hitting 11 of them. There is just more opportunity to be had without Huerter even though the 0.78 points per minute doesn’t fully reflect the upside of Murray in that situation.

Domantas Sabonis

If you just looked at what Sabonis did Monday night with only 11 real points scored, you’d think he had an awful fantasy game. While the 42.5 DK points weren’t worth his salary, it shows how much else he does in this lineup, and this is an interesting spot for him. Boston is only 17 th in rebounds allowed and with Robert Williams just returning from an injury, we shouldn’t expect him to play a ton of minutes. Boston could struggle to contain Sabonis, and he has the upside of another triple-double.

Player Pool – De'Aaron Fox , Malik Monk , Trey Lyles , Harrison Barnes , Kevin Huerter (if active)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Clippers Clippers -6.5, O/U 237

Thunder Notes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

He can be considered as a Trae Young pivot since they are virtually the same salary and Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 1.45 points per minute. Additionally, the Clippers are 29 th against primary ball handlers in the past 15 games and they’re 18 th in points per game allowed in the paint. With the Los Angeles defense allowing a 63.9% field goal rate inside of five feet of the basket, it sets up extremely well for Gilgeous-Alexander.

Jalen Williams

It was impressive that he scored 29.5 DK points despite scoring just five real points as he shot 1-6 from the floor in the last game. I’m not super excited that he’s only played 29 and 28 minutes while Gilgeous-Alexander has been in the lineup but he’s hitting the glass like he hasn’t at any point. Williams has only averaged 4.5 rebounds on the year but in the past five games, he’s at 7.6 and Los Angeles is 10 th in rebounds allowed per game.

Player Pool – Josh Giddey , Luguentz Dort , Isaiah Joe

Clippers Notes Injuries – Norman Powell (O)

Kawhi Leonard

He was a bit of a fantasy disappointment in the last game with just 38.25 DK points and the salary hasn’t moved, so he might slip through the cracks to some extent. It is still notable that he’s scoring just 1.14 points per minute with Russell Westbrook on the floor and the sample has gone over 200 minutes. It does help the Thunder are just 23 rd against crafty finishers on the year.

Paul George

The salaries on each site are virtually the same for the two stars for the Clippers so that isn’t a deciding factor. What can be a factor in the decision is George is at 1.27 points per minute and he’s leading Los Angeles in usage rate at 28.3% when Westbrook is on the floor. Both George and Kawhi likely won’t be popular since Trae Young is right in that salary range, as is Jaylen Brown so they are both worthwhile MME candidates.

Player Pool – Russell Westbrook , Ivica Zubac , Eric Gordon

NBA DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown (3/21)

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic

Wizards Notes

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