We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC Vegas 19 in Las Vegas. We currently have 15 scheduled fights for this Saturday which makes for an unbelievably good slate on DraftKings and FanDuel (if they ever release their pricing).

With so many fighters on the card, ownership is going to be naturally spread out, which makes for a big edge when we identify the right core of fighters. Fingers crossed that we do not lose any fights come Saturday.

As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.

$9.1K Serghei Spivac vs. $7.1K Jared Vanderaa

Spivac, -240; Vanderaa, +200

Spivac is coming off a decision victory over Carlos Felipe back in July. It’s clear he is not ready for the upper echelon of fighters in the heavyweight division, but he seems to be a clear tier above the lower-level fighters like Vanderaa, who is coming off a first-round knockout victory on Dana White’s Contender Series last month. He has shown he can take a punch and continue to fire back as seven of his 11 wins have come by knockout. What I don’t like about Vanderaa is that he is very hittable on the feet and does not have good cardio which is a major concern against someone like Spivac. I expect Spivac to have a significant wrestling and grappling advantage along with the better cardio as well. On the feet, both fighters could have their moments but Spivac has shown a tendency to use his wrestling and grappling when he has an advantage and that should be evident here. Spivac by submission is the official pick this is a good fight to target as I am expecting a finish.

$8.7K Drako Rodriguez vs. $7.5K Aiemann Zahabi

Rodriguez, -170; Zahabi, +150

Rodriguez is coming off a first-round submission victory on Dana White’s Contender Series in September. He has an exciting fighting style as he has finished all but one of his seven professional victories with his only loss coming against current UFC Bantamweight, Tony Gravely. His opponent Zahabi is coming off a decision loss to Vince Morales in May of 2019. Zahabi has some decent skills but some glaring holes in his game as well. He has decent power on the feet but does not throw enough volumes to win rounds. Additionally, he is a black belt in BJJ but hardly even looks to wrestle and has landed just one takedown in over 40 minutes of octagon time. I favor Rodriguez to be the more aggressive fighter, which should play a major role in this fight. The only confident lean that I have in this fight is that we see a finish. All but one of Rodriguez eight professional fights have ended inside the distance and all but two of Zahabi’s nine professional fights have ended before the final bell. Due to the nature of Rodriguez fighting style along with the finishing ability of Zahabi, the winner of this fight should get a finish and score well on DraftKings.

$8.8K Jamall Emmers vs. $7.4K Chas Skelly

Emmers, -240; Skelly, +200

Emmers is coming off a decision win over Vince Cachero last August. He is a well-rounded prospect who comes from a college wrestling background and throws in decent volume on the feet. However, I have concerns with Emmers as he is very hittable on the feet and does not take damage well. Additionally, he has shown cardio issues in the past although his last fight looked good. I am lower on Emmers than the market. Skelly is coming off an 18-month layoff as he last fought in September of 2019 when he earned a decision victory over Jordan Griffin. Skelly also has a college wrestling background as he was an All-American at Oklahoma City University so it will be interesting to see who gets the better of the wrestling exchanges. On the feet, Skelly has no hope in winning this fight as he is not a good striker and throws very little volume. However, where he has an advantage is on the mat as he is a very slick submission grappler as 10 of his 18 wins have come by submission. I expect Emmers to be winning the fight by a wide margin on the feet, but I do expect this fight to the hit the mat at some point and Skelly is live for a submission at any point in this fight. I see only two potential outcomes for this fight in that Emmers wins a decision or Skelly wins by submission. For that reason, I will have much more exposure to the underdog in Skelly on DraftKings as Emmers will likely need a finish to pay off his price tag.

$8.5K Casey O’Neill vs. $7.7K Shana Dobson

O’Neill, -145; Dobson, +125

O’Neill is making her UFC debut in this matchup against Shana Dobson. She is an Australian fighter that trains out of Tiger Muay Thai and is currently undefeated at 5-0 professionally. She seems to be a well-rounded prospect that has a future in the UFC and is only going to get better at the young age of 23. Normally, I would want to wait it out and see more from a young fighter making their UFC debut, but this is a very good matchup against Dobson. Dobson is coming off the biggest upset in UFC history when she defeated Mariya Agapova by second-round TKO last August. She is primarily a boxer but is typically being out landed on the feet and currently has a 0% takedown defense and was taken down multiple times in all her UFC fights except for Priscila Cachoeira who knocked her out in the first round. Most people assume O’Neill is just a striker based on her camp, but she actually has showed solid wrestling on the regional scene and holds a purple belt in BJJ. She should have a massive wrestling and grappling advantage in this matchup should she choose to go to it. On the feet, O’Neill is more active but throws a lot of naked leg kicks that leave her open to being countered. However, I expect her to go to the wrestling and grappling and get the fight where she has the biggest advantage. O’Neill by decision is the official pick but she is live for a submission as well. She is a sneaky good play on DraftKings as she should see little ownership on this slate and has multiple takedown and control time upside along with finishing potential on the mat.

$8.1K Julian Erosa vs. $8.1K Nate Landwehr

Erosa, -115; Landwehr, -105

Erosa is coming off an upset submission victory over Sean Woodson last June. He is not someone that I am particularly confident in as a fighter regardless of the matchup due to his poor metrics and significant durability concerns. However, he is also someone that you can never write off completely as he is an opportunistic finisher and 21 of his 24 professional wins have come inside the distance. His opponent, Landwehr, is coming off a decision victory over Darren Elkins last May. He is a high-volume striker that wants to stand and trade all night long. While this fight plays out on the feet, I expect Landwehr to be landing more volume along with chance to potentially hurt Erosa. On the flip side, Erosa should look to get this fight to the grand where he has a significant grappling advantage. Up to this point though, Landwehr has shown good takedown defense and stuffed 12 of Elkins’ 13 attempts through 15 minutes. I expect a competitive striking match where both fighters can have moments but lean with Landwehr as he throws more volume and is the more durable fighter of the two. Landwehr by decision is the official pick.

$8.3K John Castaneda vs. $7.9K Eddie Wineland

Castaneda, -125; Wineland, +105

Castaneda is coming off a decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in his UFC debut last July. In general, he is not someone that I am looking to back in almost any matchup. He is a low volume striker and is very hittable on the feet. He is well-rounded in the sense that he is not a terrible wrestler or grappler, but he is not “good” in any real area either. Wineland is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Sean O’Malley last June. Wineland is also not a fighter that I am particularly confident in. However, this is a very good matchup for him in that I believe he is the more technical and powerful striker along with the better striking defense. Castaneda would have a perceived wrestling and grappling advantage, but I highly doubt he is able to land a single takedown as Wineland has excellent takedown defense throughout his UFC career. For that reason, I favor the underdog in Wineland as the better striker in a fight that I expect to play out on the feet. He is $400 cheaper on DraftKings too which makes me have some interest. Wineland by decision is the official pick but a TKO finish would not surprise me either.

$9K Drakkar Klose vs. $7.2K Luis Pena

Klose, -170; Pena, +150

Klose is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Beneil Dariush in March of last year, which was an amazing fight despite not getting the win. He is typically more of a point fighter and does not throw a ton of volume on the feet. He has decent wrestling but typically does not look to wrestle aggressively. Pena is coming off a submission loss to Khama Worthy his last time out and this looks like a potential buy low spot for him in this matchup. Pena is like Klose in that he does not throw a ton of volume on the feet although I do favor him as the superior striker. Additionally, Pena is also comfortable on the ground as well and should have a grappling advantage in this matchup. All of Pena’s fights have hit the mat at some point and I expect this one does as well. He is good at using his long frame to scramble or look for submissions. I expect this to be a very close fight that likely goes to the judges and we are getting some odds value on Pena at such a cheap price tag on DraftKings. Klose is a decision machine and will not score well based on his metrics without a finish making him a fade for me on such a big slate. Pena by split decision is the official pick and he is the only side I have interest in for this fight.

$8.4K Danny Chavez vs. $7.8K Jared Gordon

Chavez, -145; Gordon, +125

Chavez is coming off an impressive UFC debut victory over TJ Brown last year. He is a well-rounded fighter that is comfortable wherever the fight goes. He is a technical striker with good leg kicks and is a capable wrestler as well to go along with his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He also displayed some impressive cardio in his short-notice debut and that should be key in this matchup against Gordon. Gordon is coming off a decision victory over Chris Fishgold last summer. Gordon is known for his aggressive pace and fighting style along with his inability to take damage well. However, his last time out against Fishgold, he fought a much smarter game plan, so he is aware of his tendency to get knocked out on the feet. Even with a smart game plan, Chavez is a tough matchup for Gordon in that he showed good takedown defense in his last fight against a good wrestler in Brown. If Chavez keeps this fight on the feet, then he should have a striking advantage along with the durability advantage. For those reasons, I favor Chavez in this matchup but will have some exposure to Gordon as he is a fighter that greatly benefits on the new scoring system if he were to pull off the upset victory. Chavez by decision is the official pick.

Rafael Alves vs. Pat Sabatini

Alves, -185; Sabatini, +160

Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, as Alves was scheduled to face Jai Herbert — who pulled out due to COVID-19 — and Sabatini is stepping in on short notice. Alves is coming off a second-round submission victory on Dana White’s Contender Series last season. If there is one word to describe Alves, it is explosive. He is very strong for this division and fights an aggressive Muay Thai style with lots of flashy kicks and powerful hooks on the feet. He also holds a black belt in BJJ but has been submitted six times in his career due to putting himself in bad positions and not managing his cardio. His opponent, Pat Sabatini is the former Featherweight champion in Cage Fury and is another well-rounded prospect. He is not nearly as explosive or powerful as Alves on the feet, but I believe he is the better submission grappler especially if the fight gets extended. Sabatini is not dead on the feet, but he throws a lot of leg kicks and is open to being countered and that could be a big problem against Alves. This is a fight that I am very excited for as both guys have finishing ability and are tough as hell. It has the makings for fight of the night if it plays out how I suspect, which makes it a good target on DraftKings. I will have heavy exposure to both sides of this fight. Alves by knockout is the official pick.

$9.2K Tom Aspinall vs. $7K Andrei Arlovski

Aspinall, -240; Arlovski, +200

Aspinall is coming off a first-round knockout victory over some guy named Alan Baudot, which translates to “bum” in French. Aspinall is an exciting heavyweight prospect who has run through nearly everyone he has faced. He is 9-2 professionally with one submission loss and one DQ loss. Aside from those losses, all nine of his wins have come inside round one with eight of those being by knockout. He moves well for a heavyweight and has good leg kicks and holds a black belt in BJJ. Arlovski is coming off a decision victory over Tanner Boser in which he was out landed in every round. Arlovski has made a living being a mobile heavyweight that has good cardio. However, Aspinall moves just as well if not better so it basically comes down to Arlovski withstanding the early storm and try to take over in the later rounds. That is certainly possible as we have yet to see Aspinall tested in terms of his cardio. However, I would be surprised to see Arlovski make it out of the first round. Even if he does stay alive, I am not convinced that he dominates a tired Aspinall in rounds two and three. Aspinall by knockout is the official pick and I have no interest in Arlovski on DraftKings.

$8.2K Phil Hawes vs. $8K Nassourdine Imavov

Hawes, -120; Imavov, +100

Hawes is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Jacob Malkoun in his UFC debut in October. He is now on a five-fight win streak with seven of his nine professional wins coming by knockout. He is extremely powerful and comes from an All-American junior college wrestling background. Despite the hype and obvious power with Hawes, he does have some holes in his game. For starters, he gasses out badly when pushed outside of the first round which is why he typically goes all out for an early finish. Additionally, he has taken a lot of head damage in his short career between the nonstop elbows from Andrew Sanchez on the Ultimate Fighter to getting flat lined by a head kick by Julian Marquez on Dana White’s Contender Series. Lastly, his current win streak has all come against low level guys and all five of them are first-round finishes which does not tell us if he has improved any of the holes mentioned above. His opponent Imavov is coming off a decision victory in his UFC debut over Jordan Williams in October. Imavov is typically an early finisher as well so it was good to see him go a hard three rounds against Williams in his last fight. I trust his cardio more than Hawes if the fight gets extended. You need to be able to take a punch and outlast Hawes if you are going to beat him and I think Imavov can do just that. He is a powerful striker himself and has a good enough ground game if Hawes leans on his wrestling. This is a high-variance fight that we should be targeting as we expect it to end inside the distance. If Hawes does not get the early knockout, then I see Imavov taking over in the second and third rounds and possibly earning the finish himself. This makes for an interesting live betting scenario if Hawes looks good early but does not finish in the first round so keep an eye out for that in the betting discord. Imavov by knockout is the official pick but I will have both sides of this fight relatively even.

$8.6K Chris Daukaus vs. $7.6K Aleksei Oleinik

Daukaus, -160; Oleinik, +140

Daukaus is coming off an impressive first-round knockout victory over Rodrigo Nascimento his last time out in October. He now has three straight first-round knockout victories. He is a powerful striker that looked good physically his last time out and moves well for this division when he is not carrying that extra weight. He has quick hands and technical striking to go along with his obvious power. Additionally, he is also a black belt in BJJ although we have yet to see him tested in that realm in the UFC. This matchup will likely do just that, as Oleinik is a high-level submission grappler and that is basically his only path to victory in any matchup at this stage in his career. Oleinik is coming off a knockout loss to Derrick Lewis and his last four losses have all come by knockout. He is always a threat to lock up a submission in any grappling exchanges, but he simply cannot take the damage at this stage in his career. I am expecting another quick knockout from Daukaus as the hype train keeps rolling. Oleinik could always shock us with a submission but I see that as being a very low percentage outcome in this matchup. Daukaus by knockout is the official pick and he is a strong play on DraftKings.

$8.8K Charles Rosa vs. $7.4K Darrick Minner

Rosa, -185; Minner, +160

Rosa is coming off a split-decision win over Kevin Aguilar last June. He is a submission specialist, holding a black belt in BJJ and eight of his 13 professional wins have come by submission. On the feet, he has a Karate fighting style and has a solid kicking game but is hittable and will lose most exchanges against decent strikers. Minner is a good matchup for him in that Minner is a submission specialist himself. He has severe cardio issues and is going to sell out for a submission as soon as we hear the opening bell. On the feet, Rosa should have a significant striking advantage. In the grappling exchanges, Rosa is much more technical but Minner is still dangerous and he is unconventional at times which could be the secret on submitting Rosa who has never been finished on the canvas despite Bryce Mitchell coming very close. Minner is a live underdog in this matchup but it is still a small likelihood that he is able to do what has never been done especially with his cardio concerns. He is a better first round submission bet since we know his path to victory is a first-round submission. In terms of DraftKings, I favor Rosa on the feet and if this fight goes to a decision then I do not see him losing but he is a bit overpriced if he does not get the finish. Rosa by submission is the official pick.

$9.3K Ketlen Vieira vs. $6.9K Yana Kunitskaya

Vieira, -270; Kunitskaya, +230

Vieira is coming off a decision win over Sijara Eubanks in September. She is 11-1 professionally with her only loss coming to Irene Aldana who was knocking on the door of a title shot before losing to Holly Holm. I favor Vieira in this matchup wherever the fight goes and see this as a step down in competition in terms of the talent level of her last few opponents. Kunitskaya is coming off a decision victory over Julija Stoliarenko in August. She throws more volume on the feet than Vieira, but Vieira is much more powerful and stronger which should be a factor here. Additionally, Vieira should have a wrestling and grappling advantage as well if she decides to take the fight there. Vieira by decision is the official pick but Kunitskaya has been finished in four of her five losses so there is a case to be made not to completely fade Vieira on DraftKings.

$9.4K Curtis Blaydes vs. $6.8K Derrick Lewis

Blaydes, -400; Lewis, +325

Blaydes is coming off a dominant performance over Alexander Volkov back in June, where he landed a record-high 14 takedowns. He is the best wrestler in this division and will hold a wrestling advantage over everyone that he faces. His striking is also improving, and he has good cardio to last 25 minutes if needed as he trains at Elevation Fight Team in Colorado. Lewis is a knockout or bust fighter by nature as he does not throw much volume and relies on his big knockout power to win fights at this level. This will be especially difficult for him in this matchup as Blaydes is going to look to land takedowns and take some power out of Lewis’ hands. I expect he has success with that game plan as Lewis only defends takedowns at 52%. Blaydes is going to dominant him on the mat and I doubt he is ever threatened in this fight as Lewis should spend the majority of rounds on his back. Blaydes by TKO via ground and pound is the official pick and he is the safest play on DraftKings this week with a high combination of floor and upside.