Ladd McConkey – NFL Draft Sleeper Alert
Jay Felicio
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have five games on Thursday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for January 13 | NBA DFS First Look
Golden State Warriors @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -2.5, total: 223.5
Pace: GSW (14th), MIL (8th)
Situations to monitor:
- Draymond Green and James Wiseman remain out for the Warriors.
- Brook Lopez and George Hill remain out for the Bucks while Jrue Holiday is listed as doubtful.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -5.5, total: 230.0
Pace: MIN (6th), MEM (11th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jaylen Nowell is listed as doubtful for the Timberwolves
- Dillon Brooks is listed as out for the Grizzlies while Steven Adams is listed as questionable.
Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -3, total: 216.0
Pace: LAC (15th), NOP (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Luke Kennard, Isaiah Hartenstein and Justise Winslow remain out for the Clippers.
- Zion Williamson and Kira Lewis remain out for the Pelicans.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -9.5, total: 216.5
Pace: OKC (16th), BKN (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kenrich Williams and Isaiah Roby have been ruled out for the Thunder.
- Joe Harris remains out for the Nets while LaMarcus Aldridge is listed as doubtful, and Nicolas Claxton is listed as questionable. Kyrie Irving will not play as the Nets are at home.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -8.5, total: 215.5
Pace: POR (19th), DEN (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Anfernee Simons, Norman Powell and Larry Nance are all out for the Blazers.
- Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and PJ Dozier remain out for the Nuggets while Will Barton is listed as probable.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Thursday.
With Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Norman Powell and Anfernee Simons off of the court this season, Dennis Smith has posted a 25.9% usage rate
Smith is surely going to be one of, if not the most popular player on the slate at $4,000 on DraftKings, but he’s nearly impossible to avoid. He’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minutes across roughly 130 minutes in this scenario while adding a 38.2% assist rate. Given the fact that he’s arguably the only primary ball-handler left, he’s in store for 35-plus minutes and a heap of usage.
In games without Draymond Green this season, the Warriors offensive rating drops 5.55 points (to 103.27), while their defensive rating falls to I 6.52 points (up to 106.39)
Green is clearly one of the most important players in the league relative to his team and the numbers back this up. The Warriors net rating of 8.95 drops to -3.12 (-12.07) in games without Green this season while their plus/minus goes from an elite 8.45 to a meager -4.17. With a road matchup against the defending champions, the Warriors could struggle a bit more on both ends of the court, catering to the stock of the Milwaukee players in GPPs.
Ben McLemore is averaging 19.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists per-36-minutes this season
His 19.0 points per 36 minutes this season represent a career-high over the course of his nine-year career and with the plethora of Blazers guards and wings absent Thursday, he’s likely to play another key role. Last game in a similar situation, though with Anfernee Simons active, McLemore drew a start and posted 20 points, five rebounds and a pair of assists in 30 minutes. For $4,200, it’s hard to ignore the value he brings to the table, whether you’re playing Dennis Smith or not.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($12,500)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,300)
- Stephen Curry ($11,200)
- Kevin Durant ($11,000)
- James Harden ($10,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($11,500)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300)
- Kevin Durant ($10,900)
- Stephen Curry ($10,400)
- James Harden ($10,000)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- James Harden (1x)
- Stephen Curry (1x)
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
With Thursday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Wednesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on DraftKings from Wednesday’s slate:
- PG: Dejounte Murray (72.00)
- SG: Lamar Stevens (37.25)
- SF: Eric Gordon (43.25)
- PF: Chimezie Metu (37.25)
- C: Day’Ron Sharpe (29.75)
- G: Tyler Herro (51.75)
- F: Gordon Hayward (52.5)
- UTIL: James Harden (64.75)
Total: 388.5
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel from Wednesday’s slate:
- PG: Darius Garland (46.5)
- PG: James Harden (61.4)
- SG: Eric Gordon (40.1)
- SG: Dejounte Murray (69.5)
- SF: Tyler Herro (49.3)
- SF: Gordon Hayward (52.3)
- PF: Lamar Stevens (37.9)
- PF: Jae’Sean Tate (40.7)
- C: Chimezie Metu (39.4)
Total: 437.1
Despite coming in as one of the most popular players on the slate, Dejounte Murray ended up as the highest-scoring player on the slate and a downright necessity if you wanted a big profit Wednesday. It was the lower-owned ancillary pieces that made the difference in lineups, particularly Eric Gordon (sub-8% on FanDuel), James Harden (sub-10% on FanDuel) and Chimezie Metu (sub-10% across both sites).
