After arguably the most entertaining football game of the season on Sunday night, Monday night presents us with an interesting game that could potentially struggle to provide heaps of fantasy value, as the Bears head to Los Angeles to square off with Jared Goff and the Rams.
My focus for the Monday night game will be PrizePicks. Speaking of “PrizePicks,” it’s a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production.
The format is simple. You pick two, three, or four players and predict whether or not they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total.
When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x (max entry: $400)
- Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
- Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)
As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option that still rewards you for hitting some of your picks, only with a lesser payout.
Below are my top two PrizePicks for the game on Monday, along with a few additional picks worth consideration.
The scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Chicago Bears
Projected score: 8.0; the pick: OVER
Yes, Graham is a top-10 tight end in PPR formats this season and no, the year is not 2013, that’s just how crazy 2020 has been. In all seriousness, Graham has had an incredibly successful first six weeks of the season, ranking second on the Bears in target share (15.3%), while dominating the target share in the red zone (29%), leading the team in touchdowns (5) and ranking second in the entire NFL in end-zone targets (7).
It’s never easy banking on an over when the quarterback to trust is Nick Foles, but there’s a good chance that Graham is relied upon a bit more on Monday than normal. While both Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller could see their fair share of Jalen Ramsey, Troy Hill and Darious Williams have been extremely impressive this season as well, causing none of the three receivers for Chicago to have a matchup grade better than 58.7 (per Jeff Ratcliffe’s WR/CB tool). Because of this, more targets should funnel to Graham over the middle of the field, where the Rams have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Projected score: 15.0; the pick: UNDER
While Kupp may have the highest raw ceiling of any skill position player not named Allen Robinson in this game, the downside is significantly higher than we’ve grown accustomed to with Kupp as well.
Coming into Week 7, Kupp leads the Rams in target share, garnering just over 23% of Jared Goff’s throws, while also being tied for the team lead in red-zone target share (22%) with Robert Woods. The issue, however, is two-fold. The target tree in Los Angeles is not a 3-4-man funnel, as Goff has spread the ball around to four separate receivers, two tight ends and two different running backs on a consistent basis. On top of that, the matchup is daunting. The Bears have been arguably the best team in the NFL in terms of defending slot receivers, allowing only four catches on 6.7 targets and nine fantasy points per game, without allowing a single touchdown out of the slot. So far this season, if Kupp hasn’t found the end zone, he hasn’t had a fantastic fantasy day (and hasn’t hit 15 fantasy points). In his four games without a score, he’s averaged only 9.1 fantasy points per game. If he’s held out of the end zone on Monday, the under should hit here and given the matchup, it feels like the likely outcome.
Other picks worth consideration: Jimmy Grahan (1H - Over 4), David Montgomery (under 15.5), Jared Goff (under 19.0)