Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC Vegas 32: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw.
The UFC is back at the Apex facility in Las Vegas this weekend for a really fun fight night card that features a high-level bantamweight clash between Cory Sandhagen and T.J. Dillashaw in the headliner. There are a ton of fun fights throughout the card, and I am anticipating some high DFS scores throughout the slate with a good number of finishes.
Unfortunately, we lost the scheduled co-main event this weekend between Aspen Ladd and Macy Chiasson due to an injury, however the card is still awesome from an entertainment perspective and should be a fun DFS slate despite being slightly watered down. With just 11 fights on tap for this weekend, we have a much smaller player pool than normal, which means that we need to tighten our core as DFS players and really attack our favorite plays on the slate, as opposed to spreading ownership across a few different scenarios as we do on bigger cards. If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out my The Undisputed MMA Show with myself and Jon Kelly.
In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups.
High tier: Sijara Eubanks ($9,300)
Eubanks is hands-down my favorite option on this weekend’s slate, and I’m extremely excited about the possibility her ownership may be discounted despite her projecting so well. In terms of her record, Eubanks is just 6-6 professionally with zero finishes inside the UFC octagon, but she has a great matchup this weekend against Elise Reed, who is making her UFC debut. Reed has previously fought at 105 pounds and has very poor grappling on her regional tape, meanwhile Eubanks has bullied other women at 135 pounds, and is now coming down to 125 on top of that. Eubanks has massive grappling edges in this spot and has a solid floor as the biggest betting favorite on the card, and a ceiling that includes finishing equity in addition to 3+ takedowns and lots of control time. Despite that, she may come in as the third highest-owned option over 9K, and I’m happy to pay up and be contrarian in this spot.
Mid-tier: Brendan Allen $8,000
I’ll preface this breakdown by saying I think both Allen and his opponent Punahele Soriano make for awesome plays this weekend, as in my eyes this is the best fight to target on the entire slate. Soriano is a small favorite, and the fight is nearly -300 to finish inside the distance, which may not be high enough in my opinion. Soriano is a precise power puncher with absolute bricks for hands as shown by seven of his eight wins coming via knockout in the first round, including both of his first two UFC fights. However, his cardio appears to be a massive liability and his takedown defense is relatively untested. Allen is known to eat punches with his face so the early goings of this fight favor Puna, however Allen is an elite grappler and has shown the ability to take a shot in the octagon before. If he can survive an early storm, he’s massively live for a submission victory. This is a close fight, and because I do favor Allen and he is projected to be less owned than Soriano, this is an awesome leverage spot. However, we have to acknowledge that a Puna 90-point finish bonus is a high-percentage outcome in this fight as well, so we can’t fade him entirely.
Low tier: Darren Elkins ($7,600)
Outside of Allen, there aren’t any underdogs I’m picking to win their fights straight up this week, so my general gameplan across multiple lineups is to spread out my low-tier exposure, but Elkins does stand out as a strong play in this range. Elkins is a small underdog to Darrick Minner, which I think makes sense given Elkins’ age and amount of cumulative damage he’s faced throughout the years. However, in DFS we’re looking at fighter styles and upside, which is where Elkins checks the boxes I’m looking for. Elkins averages nearly a takedown landed per round, and Minner is very likely to jump for guillotine submissions off of takedown attempts which will provide some danger for Elkins, but also allow him to land multiple takedowns in bulk if he can avoid being submitted. Even if we just look at Elkins last fight, he racked up 124 DK points in large part due to seven takedowns. While Minner is a much better grappler than Elkin’s most recent opponent, there will be a ton of grappling in this matchup and Elkins is one of the more likely winners this week out of all the underdogs.
