Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier. The UFC is set to conclude their 2021 schedule in two short weeks, but we have a massive PPV going down this weekend in Las Vegas. We currently have 15 fights scheduled for this card including two five-round fights for both the Women’s Bantamweight and Lightweight titles. With such a big slate ahead of us, it’s important that we prioritize high-ceiling players, as it will take massive scores to take down GPP’s. I’ll be in the FTNDaily Discord leading up to Saturday's slate to discuss last-minute changes and additional general slate strategy.
If you’re interested in DFS and betting takes for every fight on this card, you can check out The Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and me.
In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups.
High-tier: Bruno Silva $9400
As with any slate that starts with Amanda Nunes, we can comfortably project her as the highest-scoring fighter this weekend at $9500. Nunes is a massive betting favorite and is strongly favored to win inside the distance. I will be playing her in many of my lineups. However, if we get a Nunes that is either “too dominant” like she was against Megan Anderson where she won so fast she scored just 99 DK points, or we get a fight where she somehow loses or scores poorly in a win, we need to have pivots. My favorite pivot at the top of DK pricing is Bruno Silva. I’m not especially convinced that Silva is a good fighter, but he’s a massive favorite this weekend in a fight against Jordan Wright that is favored to end inside the first round. Silva is not going to score well if this fight gets extended, but with a 15-fight card, our only target in GPPs is upside, and a Silva win this weekend has a good chance to include a first-round bonus and a knockdown bonus.
Mid-tier: Tai Tuivasa $8300
I’ll start off by saying that I think the midrange on DraftKings is extremely difficult this weekend. I think there are a lot of big favorites on this card who deserve their price tags, which makes finding underdogs difficult. Additionally, for the fights with very competitive odds that we normally see in the mid-range, I don’t have many strong opinions. When this sort of thing happens the first thing I look to once again is upside. Tuivasa is a knockout artist who’s in a very competitive fight against Augusto Sakai this weekend. Although I give each man roughly a 50% chance to win the fight, Tuivasa fights in a style where if he were to win, he has a great chance to put up a ceiling score with a first-round knockout. Sakai, on the other hand, is more likely to win a decision that won’t score well for DFS purposes.
Low-tier: Kai Kara-France $7500
I mentioned earlier how I’m finding it difficult to pick too many underdogs this weekend, but I think that Kai Kara-France makes for a great DK play in the $7K range. France is a small underdog against Cody Garbrandt, but he carries a lot of upside should he pull off the upset. France has recorded knockdowns in consecutive fights and in four of his seven overall UFC fights. In his five wins, he’s scored an average of 85 points, which is a score that may find its way into the optimal lineup this weekend. Garbrandt also has a tendency to get into firefights with his opponents, so this is a good fight to target in general.