With the start of the 2021 NFL and fantasy football season fast approaching, our own Kevin Adams is going division by division to preview every team in the league from a DFS and betting perspective. Strategy, pace, personnel and more — he’s hitting the season from every angle to help you get ready to put your money on the line. Today: The AFC East.
Miami Dolphins
2020 record: 10-6 | MagicSportsGuy’s 2021 Projection: 11-6
Head coach: Brian Flores (3rd season)
Co-offensive coordinators: George Godsey & Eric Studesville (1st season)
Defensive coordinator: Josh Boyer (2nd season)
Play-calling/system/coaching breakdown
How Brian Flores and the new offensive coordinators calls plays will be critical to this offense for fantasy and overall production. Per Football Outsiders, OC Chan Gailey had one of the most historical shifts in their aggressiveness index, going from a top-10 aggressive offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2019 to 31st in 2020. It was smart given the rookie under center and improved defense and helped in terms of a per play efficiency standpoint.
Looking at how they approached the offseason (more below about their speed WR acquisitions), it would appear Miami is ready to go back to a more aggressive offense. If not, spending their No. 6 overall pick on Jaylen Waddle and signing Will Fuller in free agency will be a waste.
Miami was the 28th team in overall pace (23rd in yards per play) with a high pass rate (11th neutral, 58%). If the pace and pass rate increase to 2019 levels, this will be a fun offense to watch. That said, we don’t have much to go on with Godsey and Studesville in terms of play calling, so these are all “logical assumptions,” which we know don’t always work out in the NFL.
2021 notable draft picks
WR Jaylen Waddle, DE Jaelan Phillips, S Jevon Holland, OT/G Liam Eichenberg, TE Hunter Long
Notable offseason additions
QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Malcolm Brown, WR Will Fuller, G Jermaine Eluemunor, DT John Jenkins, DT Adam Butler, OLB Brennan Scarlett, LB Benardrick McKinney, LB Duke Riley, LB Shaquem Griffin, CB Justin Coleman
Notable offseason losses
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Matt Breida, C Ted Karras, DE Shaq Lawson, DT Davon Godchaux, OLB Kyle Van Noy, OLB Kamu Grugier-Hill, S Bobby McCain, P Matt Haack
Week 1
Dolphins +2 @ NE, O/U 44
Implied team totals: MIA 21, NE 23
Remaining schedule
Week 2 - vs. BUF
Week 3 - @ LV
Week 4 - vs. IND
Week 5 - @ TB
Week 6 - @ JAX (U.K.)
Week 7 - vs. ATL
Week 8 - @ BUF
Week 9 - vs. HOU
Week 10 - vs. BAL (Thu)
Week 11 - @ NYJ
Week 12 - vs. CAR
Week 13 - vs. NYG
Week 14 - BYE
Week 15 - vs. NYJ
Week 16 - @ NO (Mon)
Week 17 - @ TEN
Week 18 - vs. NE
Offense
Tackle play will be the key for this team, as they are young and not very good. That is not to say young players can’t progress, but if we are looking at this unit from a “body of work” perspective, it is one of the worst. Austin Jackson didn’t play well as a 2020 first-round rookie and was called out for this lack of effort in camp. There have been rumors Miami is looking to trade for an offensive tackle, with UDFA Jesse Davis being the other bookend. The Dolphins have been very aggressive with trades under this regime so it would not surprise me in the slightest if they do make a move or two to bolster this line.
Second-round pick Liam Eichenberg (injured, but hopes to be good for Week 1) and Robert Hunt are a solid duo at guard.
Miami’s offensive line is 23rd in Brett Whitefield’s OL rankings.
Rather than investing in the offensive line, Miami went out and got Tua Tagovailoa weapons at WR. These are not ordinary weapons; these are game-changing speed receivers. Every year we hear a player is the “next Tyreek Hill” — well this time, it may be accurate. Jaylen Waddle has the sub-4.35-second 40-yard dash speed in addition to being a solid route runner who has great hands and plays bigger than his 5-foot-9, 190-pound profile would indicate. He can play outside, but I see him being moved all over the formation, which will create havoc for the defense, with the majority of his routes coming from the slot when DeVante Parker and Will Fuller are on the field. Speaking of our guy Will the Thrill, it is going to be a lot of fun when both of these WRs are healthy and on the field. You can’t double team both speed guys, especially with Parker, Mike Gesicki (third in TE air yards, fourth in receiving yards) and Myles Gaskin (third in yards per route run among RBs) on the field.
Defense
The secondary is an issue — trading Minkah Fitzpatrick will always be a head scratcher and Byron Jones has really only been a CB1 in one season, 2019 with the Cowboys. Xavien Howard had one of the most dramatic bouncebacks from 2019 to 2020, seeing his QB passer rating in coverage plummet from 142 to 54, per Player Profiler. I don’t know if that is the largest one-year jump, but I am comfortable saying it is top five.
The other head scratcher was acquiring Justin Coleman to play slot CB. We know PFF grades are subject to debate, but when you see 76.3-67.3-60.5 to 47.4, which also correlates to his fantasy points allowed per target and him subsequently being a weekly DFS target. Look for teams (and DFS players) to attack MIA in the slot. Queue up Jakobi Meyers in Week 1.
For more analysis on Pittsburgh’s defense, be sure to check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy football cornerback unit rankings and Brett Whitfield’s defensive line rankings.
Bets
For bets, check out the FTN Bets Bet Tracker.
Fantasy
I can’t get enough of Waddle and Fuller in best ball. Unlike redraft, you don’t have to worry about missing the breakout games, and both guys have 30-plus upside in fantasy that you need to win weeks and a title.
The entire Miami roster is a value from a ADP perspective, with Myles Gaskin being the last three-down back off the board and Gesicki going as TE13 on Underdog — he finished last season as TE7.
New England Patriots
2020 record: 7-9 | MagicSportsGuy’s 2021 Projection: 9-8
Head coach: Bill Belichick (22nd season)
Offensive coordinator: Josh McDaniels (10th season this time around, 14th overall)
Defensive coordinator: The Hoody
Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will be asked to push reset once again, as they learn the value of having a Hall of Fame QB under center. Few teams had a bigger player personal overhaul than the Patriots, bringing in Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson and of course a rookie QB in Mac Jones. Regardless of what you think of Jones as a prospect, he is a rookie coming into the league in a tough division with both Miami and Buffalo projected for 10-plus wins.
2021 notable draft picks
QB Mac Jones, DT Christian Barmore, DE/OLB Ronnie Perkins, RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Notable offseason additions
WR Nelson Agholor, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Hunter Henry, TE Jonnu Smith, OT Trenton Brown, G Alex Redmond, C Ted Karras, DE Matthew Judon, DT Davon Godchaux, OLB Kyle Van Noy, LB Raekwon McMillan, S Jalen Mills
Offseason losses
RB Rex Burkhead, WR Julian Edelman, WR Damiere Byrd, G Joe Thuney, G Jermaine Eluemunor, C James Ferentz, DE John Simon, DT Beau Allen, DT Adam Butler, CB Jason McCourty
Week 1
Patriots -2 vs. MIA, O/U 44
Implied team totals: MIA 21, NE 23
Remaining schedule
Week 2 - @ NYJ
Week 3 - vs. NO
Week 4 - vs. TB
Week 5 - @ HOU
Week 6 - vs. DAL
Week 7 - vs. NYJ
Week 8 - @ LAC
Week 9 - @ CAR
Week 10 - vs. CLE
Week 11 - @ ATL (Thu)
Week 12 - vs. TEN
Week 13 - @ BUF (Mon)
Week 14 - BYE
Week 15 - @ IND
Week 16 - vs. BUF
Week 17 - vs. JAX
Week 18 - @ MIA
Offense
We can assume it will be a slower-paced, higher-rush-rate offense than we saw in the Tom Brady years and a higher usage of their TEs. For the last two seasons (post-Rob Gronkowski), New England was 30th and 32nd in TE target share. This after being an offense that dominated with the TE (sometimes two) for years. I talk about the tight ends because New England went out and got two young and talented TEs in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry (both 26 years old). Smith has an elite profile and has been dominant from an efficiency perspective, finishing fourth and third in his last two seasons in fantasy points per target.
One thing we can count on is good OL play, arguably the “best run-blocking squad in the game,” per our own Brett Whitefield. New England’s OL produced a league-leading 2.13 yards before contact on non-QB runs in 2020 and finished third in adjusted line yards allowed.
New England’s offensive line is second in Brett Whitefield’s offensive line rankings.
Defense
Not only did New England get a lot done in free agency, they also get players like Dont'a Hightower back after electing to sit out the 2020 season. Per Football Outsiders, no team has added more in terms of “net average over replacement” than this Pats squad.
It goes even further in terms of roster improvements — Christian Barmore, the No. 38 overall pick has looked good in camp, with Matthew Judon saying, “I think Barmore is going to be an amazing player in this league, just the physicality that he brings. When he starts to learn the game more, and not saying that he doesn’t, but it’s a different level. The more reps he gets, the better he looks.”
Rookie Ronnie Perkins has also been getting talked up and could take away playing time from Chase Winovich as soon as Week 1.
CB Stephon Gilmore will miss at least the first six weeks of the regular season with a quad injury. He is also in a contract dispute, so who knows when we might see him again.
Gilmore's absence means Jalen Mills will likely start at corner opposite J.C. Jackson. Between the injury and the contract situation, it's possible Gilmore, entering his age-31 season, won't play much — if at all — in 2021.
For more analysis on NE’s defense, be sure to check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy football cornerback unit rankings and Brett Whitfield’s defensive line rankings.
Bets
For bets, check out the FTN Bets Bet Tracker.
Fantasy
Nelson Agholor was exceptionally good last season, finishing top-10 in yards per route run, yards per reception and fantasy points per target. He and Jakobi Meyers (eighth in yards per route) are great ADP values.
Rhamondre Stevenson and James White are also guys I am targeting late in drafts. Stevenson has some standalone value in BeliTrick’s system but could be a league winner if something happened to Damien Harris.
New York Jets
2020 record: 2-14 | MagicSportsGuy’s 2021 Projection: 5-12
Head coach: Robert Saleh (1st season)
Offensive coordinator: Mike LaFleur (1st season)
Defensive coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich (1st season)
Playcalling/system/coaching breakdown
49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh takes over in a much-needed regime change. Mike LaFleur is also a Kyle Shanahan disciple (he was passing game coordinator in San Francisco), so I assume we will see a similar offensive scheme featuring outside zone-blocking a steady diet of play-action pass. I assume neutral pace will be slow and the rush rate high, like San Francisco, who also has had a young QB they wanted to protect. Of course, if (when) the Jets fall behind, that will increase pace and pass rate.
Per our Derek Brown, Zach Wilson “led the nation in play-action passing touchdowns (20) and ranked ninth in play-action yards per attempt (12.6) and passer rating (117.5).”
2021 notable draft picks
QB Zach Wilson, G Alijah Vera-Tucker, WR Elijah Moore, RB Michael Carter, S Jamien Sherwood
Notable offseason additions
RB Tevin Coleman, WR Corey Davis, WR Keelan Cole, TE Tyler Kroft, OT Morgan Moses, G Dan Feeney, DE Carl Lawson, DE Vinny Curry, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Jarrad Davis, CB Justin Hardee, S Lamarcus Joyner
Notable offseason losses
QB Sam Darnold, WR Breshad Perriman, TE Christopher Herndon, G Pat Elflein, DT Henry Anderson, OLB Jordan Jenkins, OLB Tarell Basham, LB Neville Hewitt, CB Brian Poole, CB Arthur Maulet, S Bradley McDougald
Week 1
Jets +4.5 @ CAR, O/U 45.5
Implied team totals: NYJ 20.5, CAR 25
Remaining schedule
Week 2 - vs. NE
Week 3 - @ DEN
Week 4 - vs. TEN
Week 5 - @ ATL (U.K.)
Week 6 - BYE
Week 7 - @ NE
Week 8 - vs. CIN
Week 9 - @ IND (Thu)
Week 10 - vs. BUF
Week 11 - vs. MIA
Week 12 - @ HOU
Week 13 - vs. PHI
Week 14 - vs. NO
Week 15 - @ MIA
Week 16 - vs. JAX
Week 17 - vs. TB
Week 18 - @ BUF
Offense
Elijah Moore is one of my highest-owned WRs on Underdog, with an ADP of WR53. I love players who were ball hogs in college — if you can’t demand targets in college, why would that change in the pros? He had a 30% and 35% target share in his last two seasons (84.3% catch rate, 8 TDs in eight games in 2020). There are exceptions to this and every rule (Justin Jefferson), but I will stick to this thought process and judge the Jeffersons as one-offs. Despite the low college target share, Jefferson was my most-owned WR last season on Underdog, as I knew his low usage was simply due to the insane talent LSU had.
New York’s offensive line is 32nd in Brett Whitefield’s offensive line rankings.
Defense
New York set out to upgrade this side of the ball as well with Sheldon Rankins, Vinny Curry, Carl Lawson and Jarrad Davis. Unfortunately, Lawson ruptured his Achilles in practice and will miss the season, and Davis is expected to miss about two months with a left ankle injury.
They still have some solid players upfront in Folorunso Fatukasi and Quinnen Williams, but it is a steep dropoff from there. The fact this front seven is solid against the run (3.75 adjusted line yards, fifth) is a detriment, as teams will simply attack their weakness with the more efficient passing game.
The Jets have one of the worst LB groups and, outside of stud safety Marcus Maye, leaves a lot to be desired in the secondary. Our own Jeff Ratcliffe has this unit ranked last after finishing 28th in pass DVOA. This will be a unit we go after in Week 1.
For more analysis on New York’s defense, be sure to check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy football cornerback unit rankings and Brett Whitfield’s defensive line rankings.
Bets
For bets, check out the FTN Bets Bet Tracker.
Fantasy
Corey Davis is another Jets WR I am very comfortable taking at his current ADP, as he and Moore should dominate target share along with slot WR Jamison Crowder, despite the Jets claiming Keelan Cole is the WR3 to start the season. (Crowder is currently on the Reserve/COVID-19 List.)
Buffalo Bills
2020 record: 13-3 | MagicSportsGuy’s 2021 Projection: 12-5
Head coach: Sean McDermott (5th season)
Offensive coordinator: Brian Daboll (4th season)
Defensive coordinator: Leslie Frazier (5th season)
Playcalling/system/coaching breakdown
Brian Daboll does not get enough credit for the 2020 Bills offense. Cranking up the pass rate and pass to end in the top-10 in both (neutral), which resulted in the third-most yards and fourth-most points per drive.
2021 notable draft picks
DE Gregory Rousseau, DE/DT Carlos Basham, OT Spencer Brown
Notable offseason additions
QB Mitchell Trubisky, RB Matt Breida, WR Emmanuel Sanders, OT Bobby Hart, P Matt Haack
Notable losses
WR John Brown, TE Tyler Kroft, TE Lee Smith, OT Ty Nsekhe, G Brian Winters, DE Trent Murphy, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Josh Norman
Week 1
Bills -6.5 vs. PIT, O/U 50.5
Implied team totals: PITT 22, BUF 28.5
Remaining schedule
Week 2 - @ MIA
Week 3 - vs. WAS
Week 4 - vs. HOU
Week 5 - @ KC
Week 6 - @ TEN (Mon)
Week 7 - BYE
Week 8 - vs. MIA
Week 9 - @ JAX
Week 10 - @ NYJ
Week 11 - vs. IND
Week 12 - @ NO (Thu)
Week 13 - vs. NE (Mon)
Week 14 - @ TB
Week 15 - vs. CAR
Week 16 - @ NE
Week 17 - vs. ATL
Week 18 - vs. NYJ
Offense
Unlike so many teams that had major roster or scheme overhauls, we know exactly what this offense is going to look like. The only change to note is going from John Brown to Emmanuel Sanders as the “other” outside WR, opposite Stefan Diggs. That is if he can hold off Gabriel Davis, who many feel is on the verge of a breakout after finishing as the 11th best WR in FP per target on a 19.4% TD rate.
Buffalo’s offensive line is 11th in Brett Whitefield’s offensive line rankings.
Defense
The defense is very similar, with no significant turnover or scheme changes after a 13-3 season. Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are elite, but Levi Wallace, Taron Johnson (slot CB) and the LBs are not just average. This led to Buffalo finishing middle of the pack in points and yards allowed (per drive). Per Jeff Ratcliffe, Johnson was “consistently targeted in the slot with 78 catches allowed on the season.”
For more analysis on Buffalo’s defense, be sure to check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy football cornerback unit rankings and Brett Whitfield’s defensive line rankings.
Bets
For bets, check out the FTN Bets Bet Tracker.
Fantasy
Cole Beasley has been all over the news and is an ADP value because of it. I look at fantasy and DFS/bets like stocks — if the P/E ratio checks out on the spreadsheet so be it.
