The Sony Open provided plenty of birdie opportunities Thursday, with the field averaging 2-under. The morning wave played the course about 0.5 strokes better than the afternoon wave. The early coverage appeared to have some moisture on the course, which could’ve led to some easier approaches.

In showdown, we typically overreact to the play from round to round, so it’s important to remember that the plays outlined in this piece should be mixed in with plays that you felt confident in for Thursday’s showdown and main slate contests. That may seem counterintuitive, but our priors on these golfers are strong enough that one round shouldn’t completely alter our opinion on a golfer. 

That said, we should pay attention to the golfers who...

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