Each week in this column, you’ll find my favorite pivot plays in DraftKings tournaments. This isn’t to say to eat some of the chalk — sometimes the popular plays tend to be popular for good reason, and you should use some of those players in your lineups. Remember, never pivot off a good play to a bad play just because they’re projected to be lower owned. That’s moronic. A shrinking of a lower-owned play or two, however, can grant you a lot of leverage in what a mostly coin-flip situations.
Bubba Watson, $7,800
Stats don’t line up with Bubba at all. But that’s OK, they never do. You have to ask yourself A) is this a Bubba course? and B) is he in the right head space? As a two-time Masters champ, the answer to A is very clearly yes. And B is unknowable. Although he fell victim to Brian Harman’s gigantic birdie streak at the Match Play, Bubba actually played really well in Austin. A course where he’s won at before. Good enough for me. Screw form, if Bubba is playing decently at courses where he’s done well before, there’s no reason he can’t randomly pop up into contention this week. Plus, he’s huge leverage off the very chalky Paul Casey.
Matt Wallace, $6,400
Realistically, almost every player in the $6K range on DraftKings is a pivot play. Except Corey Conners and Jason Kokrak. Maybe Si-woo Kim too. But Wallace presents an interesting opportunity at a very cheap price tag. Looking through the data, Wallace is on a weird short list with Bryson DeChambeau of players in the Masters field with top-10 ball flight and top-10 scrambling gained on the toughest scrambling courses on Tour.
Now playing his third Masters, Wallace may very well be on a Danny Willett path with the right breaks. I don’t think he’s going to win, but he seems like someone who can find himself in contention Sunday. He does have 10 wins between the European and Challenge Tours since 2016 too, so he’s unlikely to find the moment too, too big. OK, maybe he does. At $6,400, winning doesn’t really matter. Can he churn out a top-15 finish? I think he can. Everyone is gushing over Jordan Spieth after his win at Valero, but it was actually Wallace who let him have it. Wallace led all players tee to green and simply couldn’t make a putt. Very rarely will you a player this low in the pricing who has the potential to be well above average in every strokes gained metric.
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. (Subscribe for video or audio). Mayo (@ThePME) won the 2020 Fantasy Sports Writing Association DFS Writer of the Year and Golf Writer of the Year awards, along with the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Best Sports Betting Analyst award, and was a finalist for four FSWA Awards in 2020 (Best Podcast, Best Video, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 21 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are third-most all-time. Mayo has been recognized across multiple sports (Football, Baseball & Golf), mediums (Video, Writing & Podcasting), genre (Humor), and game formats (Betting, Daily Fantasy, and Season Long).