Each week in this column, you’ll find my three favorite pivot plays on the DraftKings main slate. This isn’t to say to eat some of the chalk, sometimes the chalk is the chalk for good reason, and you should use those players in your lineups. I’ve based the pivot plays off the FTN Ownership projections but remember, never pivot off of a good play to a bad play just because they’re projected to be lower owned. That’s stupid. The move is to find the good, low-owned players and pivot on to them. For my favorite NFL prop bets, me and Brad Evans go back and forth on FTN Bets each week.
Jackson has finished as a top-15 QB just once in the past four weeks. His price has dropped each week during this skid and the red “9” next to his name on DraftKings, indicating the strength of the Eagles defense, is going to further deflect ownership at the top of the QB board. I’m in, though. Jackson’s advanced metrics as a passer have him in a similar spot as last season on downfield throws, the TDs just haven’t materialized. Plus, expect his legs to be a major factor this week. He's topped 50 rush yards three times this year, and all three of those opponents, for the season, rank top-11 in sack rate (Washington, Houston and Kansas City). The Eagles: Third-highest sack rate (9%).
Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers
Davis is now on the $7K DraftKings tier at running back and looks wildly out of place. Optically. On performance, he should probably be more expensive. Christian McCaffrey is normally around $10K every week and Davis has offered around 80% of McCaffrey numbers, so you’re getting a value off the hop. Prorated out to a full season, Davis would be on pace for 156 receptions at this point, which is a silly total, but speaks to how he manages to outperform the others in this range. To most people, the Bears aren’t a great matchup. Again, this is all optics. Ronald Jones just gashed them on the ground, so how good are they really? What Chicago actually does well on defense is take away outside receivers. Short, and over the middle of the field give this defense issues. This leaves a game where the slightly favored Panthers could be in a script to run 20-plus times, primarily with Davis where he would also exclusively handle the goal-line work or they could fall behind and Davis gets into double-digit target territory and gets there that way. It’s strange because everyone knows this, but when they see Derrick Henry and Alexander Mattison at similar prices (both in fantastic matchups, by the way) they just refuse to click on Davis. His floor and ceiling are exactly the same as the other two, but he is coming at around one-third of the ownership on DraftKings.
You need to save somewhere, so make it tight end. Hooper is just $3,900 and ranked sixth last week in targets per route, and with him ranking a distant third in depth of target for Cleveland this season, he profiles as the perfect fit with Baker Mayfield banged up against a tough Steelers D. Breaking it down, that’s less than $500 per target. What a deal. On a slate without Travis Kelce or George Kittle, you really could do worse.