Each week in this column you’ll find my three favorite pivot plays on the DraftKings main slate. This isn’t to say to eat some of the chalk, sometimes the chalk is the chalk for good reason, and you should use those players in your lineups. I’ve based the pivot plays off the FTN Ownership projections but remember, never pivot off of a good play to a bad play just because they’re projected to be lower owned. That’s stupid. The move is to find the good, low owned players and pivot on to them. For my favorite NFL prop bets, me and Brad Evans go back and forth on FTN Bets each week.
Everyone got to watch the Cowboys stumble around Monday night. It was kinda funny, but now it’s led to potentially low-owned Elliott in Week 7. At $7,800 on DraftKings, Zeke’s sandwiched between the far more popular Alvin Kamara and perceived equivalent Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones (if he plays). But this is a great spot. Zeke’s gone for over 110 rushing yards AND a rushing touchdown in each of his last three games against Washington. And yes, it’s a small sample, but Andy Dalton’s aDOT is 25% lower than Dak Prescott’s this season. That led to Elliott catching 8 balls last week. Plus, he has at least 6 catches in four of his past five. That’s a lot of ways to break the slate.
David Johnson, RB, Houston Texans ($5,300)
Twenty-One. That’s the number of running backs on the main slate priced ahead of Johnson, despite DJ’s touch count increasing four straight weeks. Additionally, some of his underlying metrics matchup with his massive 2016 season. And now gets THE matchup he needs. The Packers allow rushing TDs to running backs at the second-highest rate in the league and there’s a world where Johnson hits value without a score at $5,300, so this matchup with the Pack creates floor/ceiling combination is rare at this price point. Originally, Johnson was going to carry a ton of ownership based on this match up and the want to stack the Texans/Packers game, however since Joe Mixon has been ruled out, DJ is no longer the popular pay-down option, as Giovani Bernard has sucked away a lot of his projected ownership.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills ($3,600)
The Bills have one of the highest implied team totals on the main slate, against arguably the worst defense in football, yet their new-minted No. 2 receiving option (at a discount price) is seemingly being overlooked. With John Brown and Dawson Knox sidelined against the Jets, expect Davis to play nearly every offensive snap. In two games where Brown got dinged up or didn’t play, Davis’ opportunity soared, seeing 13 targets over those two contests. Will he be able to convert those opportunities into DraftKings points? That’s on him and Josh Allen. But at this cheap a price, it’s more than worth the investment to think they will.