We close out the week with a very fun nine-game NBA DFS slate that, at first glance, does not feature a ton of value. Of course, it is still early and so much can (and will) change throughout the day. Be sure to monitor the FTN NBA Optimizer, too. 

 

 

NBA Vegas Data for January 14 | NBA DFS First Look

Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets

CHA -10.5, total: 225
Pace: ORL (17th), CHA (4th)

Situations to monitor:

  • Wendell Carter will miss his fourth straight game with a hamstring injury, while Mo Bamba is questionable with a toe injury. Jalen Suggs, however, will return for Orlando.
  • Kelly Oubre remains in the health and safety protocols for the Hornets.

Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons

TOR -8, total: 214.5
Pace: TOR (21st), DET (7th)

Situations to monitor:

Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers

PHX -5.5, total: 220
Pace: PHX (5th), IND (21st)

Situations to monitor:

  • Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) returned to the lineup on Wednesday but was limited to 17 minutes. He is once again listed as questionable.
  • Cameron Johnson (ankle) is questionable for the Suns.

Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -3.5, total: 212
Pace: BOS (23rd), PHI (26th)

Situations to monitor:

Golden State Warriors @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -4, total: 222
Pace: GSW (15th), CHI (10th)

Situations to monitor:

Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat

MIA -5, total: 220.5
Pace: ATL (15th), MIA (27th)

Situations to monitor:

  • Jimmy Butler has missed the last three games with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable.
  • For the Hawks, Clint Capela has been ruled out with an ankle injury, while Cam Reddish has been traded to New York. Finally, Kevin Huerter is questionable with a foot injury.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ San Antonio Spurs

CLE -3.5, total: 221
Pace: CLE (18th), SAS (4th)

Situations to monitor:

Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings

SAC -5.5, total: 237.5
Pace: HOU (1st), SAC (5th)

Situations to monitor:

Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -3, total: 215
Pace: DAL (28th), MEM (12th)

Situations to monitor:

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Cole Anthony is averaging 7.2 minutes of possession per game this season

That number is tied for the sixth-highest mark in the NBA, as Anthony has been dominating the usage for the Magic whenever he’s been on the floor. Anthony is also averaging 83 touches per game and with Wendell Carter out for Orlando, Anthony will have to do even more on the offensive end. With Carter off the floor this season, Anthony is sporting a usage rate north of 29% to go along with a 22% rebounding rate and 14% assist rate, while also averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute in the split. Facing a fast-paced Charlotte team that struggles to defend makes Anthony one of the top point guard plays of the slate.

Robin Lopez saw eight post-ups in Orlando’s last game

Staying with the Magic here, Lopez got the start at center last game with both Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba sidelined. He logged 31 minutes and was very productive, scoring 16 points to go along with 11 rebounds, two assists, one block and over 36 fantasy points. Orlando played through the post with Lopez quite a bit, as he saw eight post-ups over the course of the game, while six of his 14 field goal attempts came from the post. If Bamba is ruled out again, I would go right back to Lopez, especially against a Charlotte team that is coughing up the third-most points per game to the post (5.8), as well as the third-most points per possession (1.02) and third-highest field goal percentage (53.4%) off the play type. 

The Houston Rockets are allowing the most transition points per game this season (23.9)

While De'Aaron Fox has been a bit up-and-down over the course of the season, this is an absolute dream spot for Sacramento’s starting point guard. For starters, this game features a massive 237-point total, while both the Kings and Rockets rank inside the top-five in pace this season. Fox is very good in fast-paced games, as his 4.3 transition points per game are good for the 11th-most in the NBA. He’s been efficient, too, shooting 57.3% off the play type, while averaging 1.09 points per possession. The Rockets, meanwhile, have been atrocious at defending teams when they get out on the break, allowing a league-worst 23.9 transition points per contest. Opposing teams are also sporting an 18.3% frequency rate off the play type, the highest mark in the league. The FTN Daily advanced DVP tool likes Fox quite a bit, too.

 

 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Damion Lee vs. CHI — The Warriors will be without Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Gary Payton II Friday, which should lead to minutes in the mid-20s for Lee. Of course, the Warriors do have decent depth at the wing, but I’d expect Lee to see 23-25 minutes in this game, especially with Payton and Thompson’s minutes needing to be replaced. 

Robin Lopez vs. CHA — If Mo Bamba sits again for the Magic, I am going right back to Lopez in a dream matchup. Charlotte ranks bottom-three in all major statistics when it comes to defending the post this season, while also ranking bottom-five in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Tre Mann (31.5)
Facundo Campazzo (45.5)
John Konchar (43.75)
Zeke Nnaji (29.75)
Herbert Jones (32.5)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (65.0)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (68.0)
James Harden (60.25)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Facundo Campazzo (45.0)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (62.5)
John Konchar (39.9)
James Harden (62.9)
CJ Elleby (30.1)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (64.9)
Herbert Jones (33.7)
Jaren Jackson (43.5)
Zeke Nnaji (29.8)

John Konchar and his absurd 17 rebounds landed in both optimal lineups Thursday, and while that shouldn’t be expected going forward, it is worth noting that Steven Adams and his 17.4 rebounding chances per game remain out of the Memphis lineup.