Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
Turner is someone that should always be on your radar against left-handed pitching. Since 2019, he is crushing lefties with a .364 wOBA, .247 ISO and an insane 52.8% hard contact rate. Tyler Anderson has struggled with right-handed hitters since 2019 allowing a .347 wOBA, .215 ISO and 42.2% fly ball rate. A positive batter vs. pitcher matchup as well with Turner dominating Anderson when they’ve matched up, going 15-31 with four doubles and one home run.
Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
It’s a familiar foe for Devers as he takes on Jake Odorizzi, whose last start (June 3) was also against the Red Sox. In that start, he allowed three earned runs in three innings, including one home run. Devers doubled and walked against Odorizzi in that game. Odorizzi is giving up a lot of hard contact (40.4%) and fly balls (45.7%) to left-handed hitters since 2019, a great recipe for extra-base hits. Devers is an amazing hitter against right-handed pitchers with a .398 wOBA, .296 ISO and 44.6% hard contact rate.
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
After beginning the season in the bullpen, Matt Peacock has joined the rotation and started four games in a row. In those starts he has given up nine earned runs in 21 innings, including four home runs. This season he has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a .402 wOBA, .339 ISO and 42.3% hard contact rate. Olson has come out of the gates firing this month, hitting .391 with two doubles and two home runs. He also matches up well with Peacock’s sinker and slider, which are his two main pitches.
StatHero flex pick
Dominic Smith, New York Mets
After giving up at least five earned runs in four straight starts, Matt Harvey was able to hold the Twins to one run in three innings last time. I’m attributing that game more to the Twins since they have let me down basically all season and will attack Harvey again. Since 2019, Harvey is allowing a .399 wOBA, .264 ISO and 44.7% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Smith has been great this month, hitting .350 with two home runs.
Salvador Pérez, Kansas City Royals
Pérez has had a great season, and his last 10 games have been no different, hitting safely in eight of them with three multi-hit games and five home runs. Griffin Canning has been a reverse-splits pitcher in his career, giving up a .346 wOBA, .226 ISO and 39.5% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Canning is struggling to keep the ball in the park, giving up a home run in all but two of his starts this season.
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
Another Mets hitter to attack Harvey with, but Lindor is more affordable at $9,400. Harvey’s aforementioned struggles with left-handed hitters are the biggest reason for rostering Lindor. He is also turning a corner in his season, recording a hit in eight of his last 10 games, including five multi-hit games and two home runs. Since 2019, Lindor has a .332 wOBA, .211 ISO and 38% hard contact rate against right-handed pitchers.
AJ Pollock, Los Angeles Dodgers
After a few weeks on the IL with an injured hamstring, Pollock is back and has recorded a hit in three straight games. Anderson’s struggles with right-handed hitters are noted above while Pollock is a great hitter against lefties. Since 2019, he has a .386 wOBA, .250 ISO and 48.4% hard contact rate against left-handed pitchers.
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
It’s been an all-or-nothing season for Seager, with a .214 batting average but 11 home runs. Casey Mize had a very good May, posting a 1.74 ERA in five starts and then gave up three home runs to the White Sox in his first start in June. In his short career he has struggled with left-handed hitters, giving up a .377 wOBA, .271 ISO and 40.9% hard contact rate. Seager isn’t quite the hitter he used to be, but he still fares well against right-handed pitchers with a .204 ISO and 41.9% hard contact rate since 2019.
StatHero sleeper
Mitch Moreland, Oakland Athletics
It hasn’t been a great season for Moreland so far, but his $8,100 price tag is attractive. Peacock’s struggles with left-handers is above. Moreland is a great hitter against right-handed pitchers. Going back to 2019, he has a .361 wOBA, .265 ISO and 127 wRC+. If he can avoid chasing sliders from Peacock, he should get a fair amount of sinkers, which he is crushing with a 158 wRC+ throughout his career.
Taylor Trammell, Seattle Mariners
A rough season for Trammell, but he might be turning a corner since being called back up hitting .280 with three doubles and a home run this month. In his short career Trammell is hitting right-handed pitching very well with a .353 wOBA and .278 ISO. I like his upside at $8,100 especially with Mize’s aforementioned struggles with left-handed hitters.
Yandy Díaz, Tampa Bay Rays
One of the cheapest hitters on the overnight slate at $6,300. Patrick Corbin has struggled basically all season long, especially against right-handed hitters, allowing a .404 wOBA, .252 ISO and all 12 home runs. Since 2019, Diaz has had a ton of success against left-handed pitching with a .363 wOBA, .167 ISO and 39.3% hard contact rate. His price should allow you to get in some of the major bats up top.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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